2025 YellaWood 500 Predictions

Three to go, and we’re not talking about laps. Three races to go in the NASCAR playoffs until we crown what’s likely to be our final single-race champion for the foreseeable future. Perennial contender Denny Hamlin already clinched his spot in Phoenix after putting the pedal down in the desert in last week’s donnybrook in Las Vegas. That said, seven drivers will look to punch their ticket for the final time on Sunday afternoon at arguably NASCAR’s most intimidating track on the circuit- Talladega Superspeedway, a daunting 2.6-mile test of guts, precision, and draft technique that more often than not sees partnerships go awry with the flick of the wrist. One team in particular is on the ropes after a horrible showing at Las Vegas- Team Penske. Early in Stage 1 last week, perennial contender (and growing contender for NASCAR’s most popular driver) Ryan Blaney cut a right front that ended his day before he could sniff the Top 10. Teammate and defending champion Joey Logano finds himself in a little better position, though one that will require mistake-free driving if he’s to make the Championship 4. William Byron suffered, perhaps, the greatest heartbreak of the weekend when he heavily rear-ended Ty Dillon as the #10 was meekly preparing to enter pit road, effectively ending his day and placing him -15 to the cutline. 

So, yeah- the storylines are abundant heading into ‘Dega, and we’re here to hopefully shed a little light on who to watch out for and put some money on for what could be the biggest wildcard of the season. 

Driver to Fade:

We love this dude, and he’s brought us a lot of good fortune this year. And this isn’t a stab at his racing abilities; give him time, and he’ll likely be one of the most threatening drivers on any given Sunday. But superspeedway racing, contrary to recent rhetoric, requires an entirely different level of abilities. Shane van Gisbergen is no longer a playoff contender, and a promising run last week ended on a shoddy restart in Turn 1 that ended a great day on an intermediate for him. At ‘Dega, he averages P24 in the 3 races that he’s run there, and he’ll be going up against a hungry playoff field and hungrier underdogs looking to secure that first win of the season before silly season comes full swing. Like we said, we love this dude, but we predict he’s got a lot to learn on superspeedways, still. 

Dark Horse:

Here’s a guy who’s quietly threatening on superspeedways. Erik Jones really hasn’t had much luck this season, though he’s shown spurts of speed and promise throughout the year. Why choose him as the underdog? He averages a P14 here and always seems to point his nose in the right direction under late-race conditions. Also, in the last seven starts here, he’s tagged just one DNF. Those are pretty good odds for a talented dude on a team that’s showing growing signs of speed. 

Top 10:

There is no mathematical reason to believe Ryan Blaney will struggle at any point this weekend. Last week’s DNF effectively puts him in must-win territory, and he’s entering the next two weekends as a top three favorite at two tracks he’s dominant at. Why not choose him as the favorite to win this week? Blaney is all checkers-or-wreckers this year. This season, he’s logged 13 Top 5 finishes and 17 Top 10’s, but has also logged eight DNFs, a high number for such a consistent competitor. ‘Dega is known for the Big One, which doesn’t paint a pretty picture for the high number of DNFs. But, if he can survive them, he’ll be up front, no doubt.

Winner:

If there ever was a time for the “get back,” now is it. Time for him to show off that 100-overall driver rating that iRacing’s NASCAR ’25 awarded him in their pilot year! As we mentioned, William Byron saw a race-winning run come to a sudden halt last week when he collided with the #10. Don’t count on that this week. In recent history, this guy averages a P7 finish, none of them counting as race wins. We look for that to change this weekend, as the #24 team will be racing on high alert and with a hunger that only the cutline can produce. We’re taking this year’s Daytona 500 champion, William Byron, for the win at the YellaWood 500 on Sunday afternoon on NBC.