Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the 1.5-mile bread-and-butter track of the sport, is the stage for Race One of the Round of 8. Three races remain to decide who will race for the NASCAR Championship, and the stakes could not be higher. The top of the field is stacked with playoff drivers, each spinning their own wheel of fate. This is a track that speed, pit road execution, and the right strategy are critical. Last October, Joey Logano struck gold at Las Vegas, propelling himself all the way to the title. Will history repeat itself, or will a new contender hit the jackpot? Buckle up. The slots are spinning, and the race for the championship is on.
Driver to Fade:
The 2025 campaign for Riley Herbst has been one to forget. Truthfully, we would forgive you if you also forgot that the #35 Racing Toyota was the third entry for 23XI this season. He has an average starting position of 27th and is finishing, on average, in 26th. The model of consistency, albeit in the back of the field for Herbst. The #35 rolls off in 33rd this weekend, and we expect him to stick in the back of the field, including missing out on the top 25.
Dark Horse:
The driver of the #99’s tenure at Trackhouse Racing is ending at the end of this season. This team has struggled to find any amount of speed for Daniel Suarez’s Chevrolet throughout the year, with a significant regression in qualifying and race pace. While nothing has been officially announced for 2026, he and the team look to find some consistency for the last four races. Additionally, this has been a difficult week off the track for the Suárez family due to a scary accident involving his wife and mother-in-law. He is starting from 17th for the race in Sin City. With a better than average starting spot for the year, perhaps Suárez can bring it home in the top 15.
Top 10:
The #24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet and NASCAR Regular Season Champion has been the model of consistency this season and into the playoffs. After a bit of a disappointing Round of 16, Williams Byron found his way back around the top ten in the running order for the Round of 12. To this point, they have done what they have needed to do, but probably not what they have wanted or expected to do in the playoffs. Will this recent return to form by the #24 be enough to propel them into the Championship Round? Time will tell, but a Top Five starting spot in Vegas holds promise. We expect Byron to have a solid Top Ten showing but not have enough speed to contend for the race win.
Winner:
The battle for the win figures to be a who’s who amongst the playoff contenders. The #20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota made it to victory lane three consecutive races early in the 2025 campaign. Christopher Bell has led close to 250 laps in the last three seasons at Las Vegas, with four Top 10’s, three Top 5’s, and two runner-up finishes, but no wins. After missing the Championship Four last season on a controversial last-lap disqualification at Martinsville, Bell will be keen on not leaving it up to a points battle to confirm his spot. We expect the #20 to hard launch his championship campaign and win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
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