2025 Cook Out Southern 500 Predictions

The 2025 Cup Series Playoffs kick off tonight with one of most prestigious races of the season, the 2025 Cook Out Southern 500. First held in 1950, the Cook Out Southern 500 takes place at Darlington Raceway, a 1.366 mile egg-shaped oval featuring 25 degrees of banking in turns one and two, 23 degrees of banking in turns three and four and six degrees of banking on both the frontstretch and backstretch. One of the most unique, and challenging, tracks on the circuit, Darlington Raceway will take a driver to their absolute brink as they try and etch their names into history by capturing a Crown Jewel victory.

Darlington Raceway is the epitome of a driver’s racetrack. It requires patience in passing, patience in tire management and patience in managing your aggression. That’s why so many veterans have won this race, and why so many of the sport’s greats have made it to victory lane in their career. Darlington is a worn-out, asphalt racetrack, so there will be no tire strategy tonight. Drivers will want four, fresh Goodyears at every possible moment. The drivers who are able to not abuse their tires over the course of a run will be primed for success late in the going. Track position will be vital as well. Drivers will want to make up as much ground as possible on pit roads and restarts because that’s when the getting is good. The preferred line is around the top, about three inches off the wall. The question is: how bad do you want it? Slip the tires just once, and you’ll earn not only a Darlington stripe, but possibly end your day extremely early. The closer you run to the wall, the faster you can go. Drivers will be hard pressed to find that perfect balance over the course of a race. Finally, drivers just need to stay patient and manage their equipment. 367 laps is a long time at any track, especially at a track as challenging as Darlington. Keeping those tires cool, not sliding into the wall and not full sending it into the corners will go a long way when it’s all said and down.

The Cook Out Southern 500 was first held in 1950 and has truly produced a Who’s Who of winners covering the history of the sport. Jeff Gordon holds the record for the most Cook Out Southern 500 wins, finding victory lane six times in his career, including four consecutive years from 1995 to 1998. Cale Yarborough has five career Cook Out Southern 500 wins, while Bobby Allison took the checkered flag four times. Buck Baker, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Bill Elliott, Denny Hamlin, David Pearson and Herb Thomas each have three victories in this race, while Greg Biffle, Harry Gant, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones, Terry Labonte, Mark Martin and Fireball Roberts are all multi-time winners of the Cook Out Southern 500.

Last year’s edition was won by Chase Briscoe, who led 29 laps on the day, including the final 26, to hold off Kyle Busch, punch his ticket to the Playoffs and ultimately take home the final Cup Series victory for Stewart-Haas Racing. Christopher Bell led one lap on the way to a third place finish, Kyle Larson swept the stages and led a race-high 263 laps on the way to a fourth place finish and Ross Chastain led three laps on the way to a fifth place finish. Denny Hamlin led 21 laps on the way to a seventh place finish, Tyler Reddick led one lap on the way to a 10th place finish, Polesitter Bubba Wallace led 37 laps on the way to a 16th place finish, Ty Gibbs led one lap on the way to a 20th place finish, Shane van GIsbergen led four laps on the way to a 26th place finish, William Byron led two laps on the way to a 30th place finish and Josh Berry led five laps on the way to a 31st place finish.

Coverage of the Cook Out Southern 500 can be seen on the USA Network, with pre-race beginning at 5:30 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 6 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

After a sterling rookie campaign last season, Carson Hocevar has had more of an up-and-down sophomore campaign in 2025, posting career-best finishes of second at both the EchoPark Speedway Spring race and at Nashville to go along with six top 10’s and nine top 15’s. On the flip side, Hocevar has seven DNF’s through the first 26 races, a significant increase from last season where he only had two DNF’s through the entire 2024 campaign. Hocevar has yet to master Darlington in his young career, finishing outside the top 25 in each of his last three starts at the track, including consecutive finishes outside the top 30 in his last two starts. Hocevar showed surprising pace in Practice, posting the fourth fastest lap of the session and ranking inside the top 5 on 5 Lap Averages and inside the top 10 on 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages. Hocevar has work to do tonight, though, as he rolls out from the 26th starting position. I predict that Hocevar will struggle tonight, earn a few Darlington stripes and finish the race outside the top 25.

Dark Horse:

The first driver on the outside of the Playoffs looking in, Chris Buescher still put together a solid campaign, posting four top 5’s, 13 top 10’s and just 1 DNF to rank 17th in the Driver Standings. Buescher has been sneaky good at Darlington in his career, posting one top five, six top 10’s and 11 top 20’s in 16 starts, including posting back-to-back top six finishes at the track, posting one top five and four top 10’s in his last five starts at the track, posting top 10 finishes in three of the last four Cook Out Southern 500’s and leading 21 laps late in the going in the 2024 Spring race before getting tangled up with Tyler Reddick and finishing 30th. Buescher didn’t exactly inspire during Practice, posting the 29th fastest lap of the session and ranking 20th or worse in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages. Buescher starts in 15th position tonight and will undoubtedly manage his tires, use his patience and methodically work his way forward all night long. A win is certainly within reach if they get that car dialed in, but mark Buescher down for another top 10 finish in the Cook Out Southern 500.

Top 10:

A year removed from a Championship Four appearance, Tyler Reddick had a bit of down year in comparison this season, posting five top 5’s and nine top 10’s to slot in 14th position in the Playoff Standings. Reddick is looking to gain some momentum as he starts the Playoffs, posting just one top 10 and three top 20’s in his last six races entering this week. Fortunately for Reddick, Darlington has been very good to him in his career, posting four top 5’s, six top 10’s, nine top 20’s and leading 319 laps in 12 starts at the track. Among the highlights: four top four finishes in his last seven starts, three straight top 10’s in the Cook Out Southern 500, laps led in each of the last four Darlington races, including 90 or more laps led in two of those starts, and nine straight Darlington races qualified in the top 10. No, Reddick hasn’t won here, but he’s been damn close, and will continue to knock on that door each time NASCAR races here, thanks to his excellent ability to ride so damn close to the wall. Reddick also took it easy in Practice, laying down the 22nd fastest lap of the session and ranking inside the top 20 on 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 Lap Averages before laying down the fourth fastest lap of the qualifying session. Reddick will be one of the drivers to beat tonight, will lead some laps and will be in the mix late on the way to a fourth straight top 10 Cook Out Southern 500 finish.

Winner:

Did somebody say Title Run? It’s all falling into place for Denny Hamlin to get that long-awaited Championship. 2025 has been a great year for the #11 team, posting four wins at Martinsville, the Darlington Spring race, Michigan and Dover, 11 top 5’s and 13 top 10 finishes to start the Playoffs in third position in the Playoff Standings. The winner of the Spring race at this track, Hamlin is arguably the best active driver at Darlington, posting five wins, 14 top 5’s, 19 top 10’s, 23 top 20’s and leading 1,010 laps in 26 career starts. His last 12 Darlington starts? Nothing short of incredible, with three wins (including the 2021 Cook Out Southern 500), seven top 5’s, eight top 10’s and 448 laps led over that stretch, including leading laps in 11 consecutive Darlington races. Hamlin was quiet in Practice, posting the 19th fastest lap of the session and only ranking inside the top 20 on 5 and 30 Lap Averages. Hamlin left it all on the track in qualifying, earning his second career Darlington Pole and his second Pole of the 2025 season. It’s rare that I pick the Polesitter, but when it comes to managing tires, mangling the car, staying patient and just executing on worn-out race tracks, Hamlin is the man to step up to the plate and outlast the competition. He’s going to beat your favorite driver… again. I predict that Denny Hamlin will put on an absolute clinic, lead a bunch of laps and tame The Lady in Black on the way to his fifth victory of the 2025 season, his sixth career Darlington win, a season sweep of the Darlington races and his fourth career Cook Out Southern 500 victory!