2025 Brickyard 400 Predictions

The Cup Series takes center stage today with one of its Crown Jewel races as it returns to the iconic Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the 2025 Brickyard 400. A 2.5 mile rectangular oval with 9.2 degrees of banking in the corners, Indianapolis Motor Speedway was built in 1909 and has tested the best of the best across various motorsport disciplines for over a century and counting. Serving as the host of the Brickyard 400 since its NASCAR debut in 1994, Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a true test of man vs. machine vs. the track, as drivers hope to etch their names into history, and, ultimately, kiss the bricks following their victory.

This race is one where patience is truly a virtue, as passing is difficult. Track position is king at Indianapolis, and drivers will want to get it in any way possible. Passing is possible, don’t get me wrong, but it’s so damn difficult at this track. The preferred line is wrapped around the white line around the bottom of the track, but an outside move is also possible, as long as the driver trusts their machine enough to attempt it. Drivers will need to have their A-game on pit road to pick up some big spots, and they will want to be locked in on restarts, as those two areas will make or break a driver’s day at a track like this. There will be plenty of comers and goers early on, with front runners like Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain and Chase Elliott all starting 30th or worse, while unexpected front runners like Erik Jones, Carson Hocevar and Shane Van Gisbergen all starting up inside the first six rows. Expect controlled chaos in the opening laps before the drivers settle into a groove as the race goes on. Drivers will need to manage their equipment, as 400 miles is a long time at Indianapolis. As we saw in Practice and qualifying, many drivers were having issues in turn two, getting loose and either brushing the wall or flat out wrecking entirely. Drivers will want to be careful not to be too aggressive and end their day in this corner early, but as the race goes on, we will likely see more bold moves, especially once that pay window opens up come the last 50 miles. Which driver will rise above the rest and add their name to the annals of racing history with a victory at the Brickyard?

Today starts the championship round of the In-Season Challenge, with two drivers still in the hunt for that million dollar prize. It’s Ty Gibbs vs. Ty Dillon for the title of In-Season Champion. The highest placing finisher between these two drivers will take home a cool million dollars. I’m honestly not sure who the favorite is at this point, but I can promise you one thing, Ty is winning this one.

The Brickyard 400 was first held in 1994 and since then, has produced an incredible set of winners by the best of the best of the sport. Jeff Gordon has captured the most Brickyard wins, kissing the bricks five times in his career. Jimmie Johnson is a four-time winner at Indianapolis, while Kevin Harvick has captured the Brickyard three times in his career. Kyle Busch, Dale Jarrett and Tony Stewart are also multi-time winners at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Last year’s edition was won by Kyle Larson, who took the lead late and led the final seven laps on the way to a Brickyard 400 victory. Tyler Reddick finished second after leading a race-high 40 laps, Ryan Blaney finished third, Christopher Bell led two laps on the way to a fourth place finish and Bubba Wallace won Stage 2 and led 26 laps on the way to a fifth place finish. Todd Gilliland finished in sixth place after leading one lap, Noah Gragson finished in ninth after leading three laps and Chase Elliott finished in 10th after pacing the field for one lap. Ross Chastain finished in 15th after leading eight laps, Michael McDowell led one lap on the way to a 16th place finish, Brad Keselowski led 35 laps before running out of gas on a late restart and finishing 21st, Kyle Busch led five laps on the way to a 25th place finish, John Hunter Nemechek led 16 laps on the way to a 29th place finish and Denny Hamlin won Stage 1 and led 21 laps before being caught up in a late incident and finishing in 32nd place.

Coverage of the Brickyard 400 can be seen on TNT, with pre-race coverage beginning at 1 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 2 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

As we all know, Ross Chastain is my favorite driver, but lately, he hasn’t been cutting the mustard. Since logging a 6th place finish at Michigan, Chastain has had four finishes of 24th or worse in his last six starts, with the lone bright spot being a 10th place finish at the Chicago Street Race. A winner of a Crown Jewel race in the Coca Cola 600 earlier this year, the Crown Jewel race at The Brickyard has been less than kind to Chastain in his career. Chastain has improved each time he’s come here, but his best finish was a 15th place showing last year. Chastain has pretty much been DOA so far this weekend, posting the 30th fastest lap of Practice and qualifying in 33rd position. It kills me to fade him, but I’m just not seeing the speed needed to march towards the front on this difficult-to-pass-on track. I predict that Chastain will not improve on his best finish at Indianapolis and finish outside the top 15.

Dark Horse:

John Hunter Nemechek has been having a career year behind the wheel of the #42 car for Legacy Motor Club, with one top five, six top 10’s and nine top 20 finishes to sit at 21st in the Driver Standings, a huge leap for a car that has never finished a season in the top 30 in points. Nemechek has shown solid pace at various times in his career, and Indianapolis is a prime example. Nemechek qualified in 10th position for this race last year, leading 16 laps on the day before getting caught up in an accident and finishing in 29th place. Nemechek is picking up the torch where he left off, posting the second fastest lap of Practice and pacing the field on 5, 10 and 15 Lap Averages. Unfortunately for Nemechek, he will have some work to do early on, as he brushed the wall in qualifying and will start in 36th position. The damage didn’t look too severe, so Nemechek should have no issues in driving his car back towards the front. Given how deep he is starting, a top 15 finish is certainly a realistic expectation for Nemechek.

Top 10:

I am fully prepared for the online trolls to lose it, but we’re coming out swinging today. Yes, we know Bubba Wallace hasn’t won in a while. Yes, we know he wrecks on occasions. Yes, we know you don’t like him for one obvious reason. The man brings sponsorship dollars, though, so get the fuck over it. He can write his own ticket until he chooses to step away from the sport. That being said, Bubba Wallace is having a good season, with three top 5’s and seven top 10’s, good enough to sit in 13th position in the Driver Standings and 16th in the Playoff Standings, with a 16 point cushion to Ryan Preece, the first driver below the cut, with five races to go in the regular season. I’m all in on Wallace this week because he’s been one of the best drivers of late at Indianapolis, posting three straight top 10’s in this race, highlighted by a 3rd place finish in 2019 and a 5th place finish last year that saw him win Stage 2 and lead 26 laps during the race. Wallace wasn’t the flashiest in Practice, posting only the 14th fastest lap, but showed up when it mattered, putting his #23 Toyota Camry on the front row, starting today’s race from 2nd position. Frankly, a win wouldn’t surprise me given Wallace’s recent success at The Brickyard. But, I predict that Wallace will lead some laps and have a great points day on the way to a fourth straight top 10 finish in this race.

Winner:

Shake and bake, boys! We are all in on 23XI Racing this afternoon. Tyler Reddick has had about as good of a year as you can have without a victory, posting five top 5’s and eight top 10’s to sit in 5th position in the Driver Standings, the highest ranking driver without a victory. The Brickyard has been a really good track for Reddick in his young career, finishing 8th here in 2020 and leading 40 laps from the Pole last year before finishing in second place behind Kyle Larson. Reddick only posted the 25th fastest lap of Practice, but he showed great overall pace, ranking 9th on 5 Lap Averages and 5th on 10 Lap Averages. Reddick is starting up front behind his teammate, Bubba Wallace, on the second row in the 4th position. The Toyotas have shown a lot of pace all weekend long, and I predict they will use the track position to their advantage all race long. I’m taking Tyler Reddick to kiss the bricks and take home a Crown Jewel victory with a win in the Brickyard 400!