2025 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Predictions

The Cup Series rides on today with the 2025 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover Motor Speedway. A one mile, concrete oval featuring 24 degrees of banking in the corners and nine degrees of banking on the straights, Dover opened for racing in 1969 and has been a fixture on the schedule ever since, testing both man and machine with its concrete surface, as drivers look to conquer the Monster Mile.

The race will be wild early on, as there was no Practice or qualifying yesterday due to rain, and the lineup was set based on the metric. Because of that, there will be plenty of drivers rising and falling through the field early on, as there will be several stout drivers coming from deep and several drivers starting towards the front who aren’t quite used to starting up there. Plus, with no one having track time this weekend, somebody is bound to have issues early on. There really isn’t much strategy today. The concrete banks of Dover destroy tires, so drivers will want four, fresh Goodyear tires at every possible opportunity. Nobody is going to take two tires or no tires. We saw how that played out for Kyle Sieg yesterday in the Xfinity Series race. Drivers will want to pick up as many spots as possible on pit road, because on-track passing will require great patience. Dover is, most importantly, a demanding track on both the driver and the machine. With the high temperatures on tap, the severity of the banking and the roughness of the surface, drivers will truly be feeling it this afternoon, as their bodies will be feeling tons of compression in the corners and it’ll feel like they’re driving in a furnace. The track is rough on the cars as well. Tire blowouts, engine blowouts, power steering failures, brake failures, mechanical failures and all sorts of other internal gremlins are always possible when the drivers come to Dover. 400 laps is a long-time for issues to pop up unexpectedly. Taking care of the tires, managing the brakes and backing down the aggression into the turns can go a long way towards making sure both you and your car make it the distance. At the end of the day, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.

Today starts the semi-final round of the In-Season Challenge, with four drivers still in the hunt for that million dollar prize. It’s the studs vs. the Cinderella stories, as Tyler Reddick and Ty Gibbs face off and John Hunter Nemechek battles Ty Dillon for a spot in the championship. The winner of these matchups will move on to the Championship Match next Sunday at Indianapolis.

The Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 was first held in 1969 and since then, has produced an incredible number of wins by the legends of the sport. Jimmie Johnson has the most wins in this race, finding victory lane six times in his career. Bobby Allison is a five-time Dover winner, while Matt Kenseth, David Pearson, Richard Petty and Martin Truex Jr. have each won this race three times. Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Bill Elliott, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Cale Yarborough are also multi-time winners of the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400.

Last year’s edition was won by Denny Hamlin, who led a race-high 136 laps to take home his second career Dover victory. Kyle Larson finished second after winning Stage 2 and leading 39 laps, Martin Truex Jr. finished third after winning Stage 1 and leading a nice 69 laps, Kyle Busch finished in fourth after leading 34 laps and Chase Elliott finished the day in fifth place. Ryan Blaney finished in seventh after leading 47 laps, Daniel Hemric finished in ninth after leading five laps, Corey LaJoie finished in 21st after leading 33 laps, Bubba Wallace finished in 32nd after leading one lap and William Byron finished in 33rd after leading 36 laps.

Coverage of the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 can be seen on TNT, with pre-race coverage beginning at 1:30 PM EST, and green flag coverage beginning at 2 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

Photo Credit: https://www.jayski.com/paint-schemes/cup-series-paint-schemes/2025-nascar-cup-series-71-spire-motorsports-paint-schemes

Michael McDowell has had a respectable first season in the #71 car for Spire Motorsports, logging two top 5’s, three top 10’s and eight top 15 finishes to rank 19th in Driver Standings. However, that’s where the good times end for McDowell. In a nutshell, Michael McDowell sucks at Dover, plain and simple. In 24 career starts at the track, McDowell has just three top 20 finishes, with a best finish of 17th coming in 2022. McDowell has finished 25th or worse in five of his last 10 starts at Dover and has struggled on concrete tracks in general this season, finishing 21st at Nashville and 30th at Bristol. McDowell does roll out from seventh this afternoon thanks to a season-best fourth place finish last weekend at Sonoma, but I predict that he will falter early and struggle throughout the race on the way to another finish outside the top 20 at Dover.

Dark Horse:

Photo Credit: https://motorsportswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/motor/nascar/2025/04/15/ty-gibbs-strong-third-place-finish-bristol-april-2025/83093667007

Ty Gibbs has taken some big strides in his third, full-time season in the Cup Series, posting three top 5’s and five top 10’s to rank 17th in the Driver Standings. Gibbs has really started to excel over the past few months, as he enters this race on the heels of six straight top 15 finishes, including a third place finish at Michigan and a runner-up performance on the streets of Chicago. Dover has been a consistent track for Gibbs in his young career, finishing 13th in 2023 and 10th in 2024. Concrete tracks seem to be the place for Gibbs as well, finding solid success here, as well as at Bristol, where he has posted a pair of top 5’s and three top 10’s in five starts. Gibbs rolls out from 9th thanks to a 7th place finish last weekend at Sonoma and will look to capitalize early on with his track position. The man is due to finally capture that breakthrough win, but until then, give me Gibbs for a seventh straight top 15 finish this week.

Top 10:

Photo Credit: https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/2021/05/17/bowman-takes-checkered-flag-at-drydene-400-in-deleware/?outputType=amp

The lone winless driver at Hendrick Motorsports in 2025, Alex Bowman has still had a strong campaign to date, posting four top 5’s and 10 top 10 finishes through the first 20 races. Like Gibbs above, Bowman has also started heating up this summer, posting four finishes of 11th or better in his last five starts, highlighted by top five performances at both Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez and EchoPark Speedway. Bowman doesn’t get a lot of respect put on his name, but he can go against the narrative that the online trolls continue to spread as he returns to one of his best tracks in Dover Motor Speedway, where he has one win, five top 5’s, six top 10’s and 116 laps led in his last seven starts at the track. Bowman rolls out from 16th thanks to a 19th place finish at Sonoma last weekend and will need to make up some ground early. Bowman has had plenty of proven success at this track and will no doubt use it to his advantage on his way to a top 10 finish.

Winner:

Denny Hamlin celebrates in Victory Lane after winning a NASCAR Cup Series auto race at Dover Motor Speedway, Sunday, April 28, 2024, in Dover, Del. (AP Photo/Derik Hamilton)

Did somebody say I beat your favorite driver? 2025 has been a great season thus far for Denny Hamlin, picking up wins at Martinsville, Darlington and Michigan to go along with nine top 5’s and 10 top 10’s to slot in 5th in the Driver Standings, all the while missing a race following the birth of his child. Hamlin has been checking boxes all season long, finding success at tracks where he has traditionally thrived in the past. Dover is no different for Hamlin. In 34 Dover starts, Hamlin has two wins, eight top 5’s, 16 top 10’s, 24 top 20’s and 818 laps led. Hamlin’s last 10 Dover starts have been particularly strong, picking up both wins, five top 5’s, seven top 10’s and leading 542 laps during this stretch. Hamlin has always been great at managing his equipment and has fared very well on concrete tracks in his career. 2025 has been another masterclass into why Hamlin is still thriving late in his career, finishing second at Bristol and third at Nashville, the other two concrete tracks on the schedule. Hamlin starts from 13th today thanks to a 20th place finish at Sonoma, but don’t expect him to stay there long. The defending winner of this race, I predict that Denny Hamlin will use that veteran experience to survive the early chaos of a track that has had no Cup Series action this weekend and methodically work his way towards the front. Our favorite villain, I’m taking Denny Hamlin to pick up his fourth win on the season and conquer the Monster Mile with a victory at Dover!


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