2025 Grant Park 165 Predictions

The Cup Series carries on this afternoon as it returns to the streets of Chicago for the 2025 Grant Park 165. Hosting NASCAR for the third consecutive year, the street course is a 2.14 mile, 12-turn track that works its way through some of Chicago’s most notable areas, including Grant Park, Buckingham Fountain, DuSable Lake Shore Drive, Columbus Drive, Balbo Drive, Roosevelt Road, Congress Plaza Drive, Jackson Drive and Michigan Avenue. The race will last 75 laps, or approximately 165 miles.

Today’s strategy? Four fresh tires and hope you time your pit stops properly. There will be so many contrarian strategies that the picture really won’t become any clearer until the last caution falls, whenever that may be. Drivers can flip the stages quite easily given the length of the track in hopes of improving their running position. The race can be divided into thirds by pitting every 25 laps. It’s a risk, but seems like the clearest path to victory in my opinion. Track position can be gained on two tires, or no tires even. But four, fresh Mr. Feel Goods always win out when it’s all said and done. Chicago has produced some iconic finishes, with SVG taking the inaugural victory in the fading light, as well as Alex Bowman running out the clock and ending a lengthy winless streak. What sort of fairytale finish will we have with today’s edition? Will we have another first-time winner? Will a lengthy winless streak come to an end? Least we forget our playoff disrupters. Today is shaping up to be another great race on this Independence Day weekend.

Last year’s edition was won by Alex Bowman, who led the final eight laps to end an 80-race winless streak and win his first road course race. Tyler Reddick finished in second place, while fellow Toyota driver Ty Gibbs finished third after leading a race-high 17 laps. Joey Hand finished in fourth after leading seven laps, while perennial road course favorite Michael McDowell rounded out the top five. Zane Smith finished in 17^th after leading three laps on the day, Christopher Bell led 14 laps on the way to a 37^th place finish after getting caught up in an incident and Shane van Gisbergen finished 40^th after leading nine laps and winning Stage 1 before being caught up in an incident.

Coverage of the Grant Park 165 can be seen on TNT, with pre-race beginning at 1 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 2 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

2025 has been a great season for Josh Berry, piloting the Wood Brothers #21 car to victory lane at Las Vegas for his first Cup Series victory. In total, one win, two top 5’s and three top 10 finishes to sit 19^th in the Driver Standings, as well as a guaranteed playoff berth. Despite his solid performances, Berry doesn’t offer much when it comes to short track racing, finishing 26^th at both Circuit Of The Americas and Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, as well as 36^th in this race last year. Berry has shown no indication of things changing this weekend, as he posted the 38^th fastest lap of Practice and qualified in 29^th for this afternoon’s race. Still a favorite in my book, but curb your expectations today, as Berry will finish outside the top 25 in Chicago.

Dark Horse:

The young dude with all the swagger. Carson Hocevar shows up to the track, takes care of business best he can and doesn’t care if he pisses you off in the process. Still in the hunt for that first victory, Hocevar has had a respectable sophomore season, posting a pair of top 5’s, three top 10’s and six top 15 finishes, including career-best runner-up showings at the EchoPark spring race and Nashville. Hocevar has shown some road course prowess so far in his career, finishing 13^th at Circuit Of The Americas this season, 12^th at the Charlotte Roval last fall and 3^rd last season at Watkins Glen. Hocevar is showing that potential once again this weekend, posting the 6^th fastest lap of Practice and ultimately qualifying on the second row in third position. A win? Well, if Chicago has shown us anything, it’s that anything can happen. Given the pace, another top 12 finish is certainly within reach for Hocevar.

Top 10:

Michael McDowell shocked many in the NASCAR world by leaving long-time team Front Row Motorsports to drive the #71 for Spire Motorsports. So far, that move is showing to be a successful one, with McDowell posting one top five, two top 10’s and seven top 15 finishes to sit in 22^nd position in the Driver Standings. Since 2022, McDowell has posted one win, five top 5’s, 11 top 10’s and 15 top 15’s across 19 starts on road courses and has quickly become one of the favorites any time the schedule has intentional right turns on it. McDowell has quickly found his groove in the Windy City, starting in the top six in each of the previous two editions, and finishing 7^th in 2023 and 5^th last season. McDowell finished 11^th at Circuit Of The Americas earlier this season, finished 5^th at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez and is looking for even more this weekend, posting the fifth fastest lap of Practice and paced the field on 5 and 10 Lap Averages. McDowell will start on the front row this afternoon in second position and will be chomping at the bit to punch his ticket to the playoffs with a victory. Expect McDowell to lead some laps and be a threat for the win this afternoon, but a top 10 finish is an absolute lock.

Winner:

How can you even think about betting against the Thunder from Down Under? Shane van Gisbergen is a road course wizard, whether you like it or not, and is the man to beat anytime the schedule pulls into a road course. A winner at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez just a few weeks ago, van Gisbergen’s only other top 10 performance was a 6^th place showing at Circuit Of The Americas. His next best finish? 14^th at the Coca Cola 600. Needless to say, SVG should be a little more worried about the ovals moving forward. Even though he’s 32nd in the Driver Standings, he’s locked into the playoffs thanks to that victory. Boomers implode everywhere. This weekend is shaping up to be another SVG clinic, as he posted the 7^th fastest lap of Practice on the way to winning the Pole, 0.468 second ahead of Michael McDowell in second position. SVG won this race in his NASCAR Cup Series debut, leading nine laps on the way to victory. SVG also led nine laps last season and won the first stage before wrecking out and finishing 40^th. For a long-time, A. J. Allmendinger was the King of Road Courses. There’s a new sheriff in town, though, and his name is Shane van Gisbergen. Give me SVG for his second win of the season, and his second Chicago Street Race victory!