2025 Grand Prix at Mid-Ohio Predictions

The INDY NXT by Firestone Series drivers returns to the track this weekend as it takes to the track at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course in Lexington, Ohio, for the 2025 Grand Prix at Mid-Ohio. The Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course is a 2.258 mile, 13-turn, natural terrain road course that opened in 1962 and has hosted the INDY NXT by Firestone Series since 1980. Consisting of four left turns and nine right turns, drivers will be in a dead sprint from the very start, with the race only lasting 35 laps.

Mid-Ohio serves as the kickoff for the second half of the 2025 INDY NXT by Firestone Series season. With just seven races to go until a champion is crowned, Andretti Global’s Dennis Hauger is your point leader, sitting 28 points ahead of his teammate Lochie Hughes on the strength of four victories in the first five races of the campaign. HMD Motorsports’ Caio Collet sits 70 points behind Hauger in third place, while Myles Rowe of ABEL Motorsports and Collet’s teammate, Josh Pierson, sit in fourth and fifth place in the Championship Standings, 101 and 123 points off the pace, respectively.

The Grand Prix of Ohio has been held since 1980, producing an incredible list of winners, featuring both rising stars and veterans alike. Kyle Kirkwood and Santiago Urrutia share the record for most wins in this race, with each of them finding victory lane three times. Oliver Askew, Townsend Bell, James Davison, Jack Harvey and Patricio O’Ward are also multi-time winners of this race.

Last year’s edition was won by Caio Collet, who after setting a new track record and starting on the Pole, led all 35 laps on the way to his first INDY NXT by Firestone Series race victory. Louis Foster qualified second and finished second, while Jacob Abel started and finished in third position. Collet’s teammates, Callum Hedge and Christian Brooks, finished in fourth and fifth place, respectively.

Coverage of the Grand Prix of Ohio can be seen on Sunday, July 6, on FS1, with green flag coverage beginning at 10:30 AM EST.

Driver to Fade:

2025 has not been the rookie season that Hailie Deegan was hoping for in the INDY NXT by Firestone Series, posting six finishes outside the top 15 in seven starts, with a best finish of 14th coming at the season-opening race in St. Petersburg. Deegan currently sits 19th in the Championship Standings, dead last among all full-time drivers. This weekend has shown more of the same struggles for Deegan, as the #38 for HMD Motorsports was the slowest driver in both Practice 1 and Practice 2, not to mention qualifying dead last among the 19-car field. Barring major catastrophe from other drivers throughout the race, it is safe to predict that Deegan will finish outside the top 15 for a seventh consecutive race.

Dark Horse:

On the opposite side of the coin for HMD Motorsports, Evagoras Papasavvas and his part-time campaign are full of so much promise for the young man who hails from Kirkland, Washington. Papasavvas has two top 10’s and zero finishes outside the top 15 in all four of his INDY NXT by Firestone Series starts, including a career best finish of second place in his very first start in the second race of the season at Barber Motorsports Park. I’m intrigued by Papasavvas due to his success in the USF 2000 Championship while driving for Jay Howard Driver Development. In nine Mid-Ohio starts, Papasavvas posted a pair of wins, four top 5’s and five top 10’s. He also had four finishes of 14th or worse, so there is definitely some risk/reward for this driver at this track. Papasavvas had mixed results in Practice, posting the 9th fastest speed of Practice 1 and the 14th fastest speed of Practice 2. Papasavvas will roll out from the 9th position for this race, and given his past success at this track and his recent momentum this season, I predict that he will lock down his third top 10 finish of the campaign.

Top 10:

Fresh off of a win two weeks ago at Road America, Caio Collet is having a very consistent season, with one win and six top five finishes in seven starts, with a 19th place finish at Barber Motorsports Park being the lone blemish on an otherwise great stretch of finishes for Collet in 2025. Currently sitting in third position in the Championship Standings, as well as the clear front runner for HMD Motorsports, Collet and his #76 Dallara IL-15 have some momentum as they look to defend their victory in this race last season, which was Collet’s first win on his way to a third place showing in the 2024 Championship Standings, all the while doing this as a rookie. Collet came to play as he looks to successfully defend his title and win for the second straight race this season, ranking 5th in Practice 1 and laying down the fastest lap of Practice 2. Collet gave the Pole position a serious run, qualifying in second position, a mere 0.1181 seconds behind the Polesitter. Expect Collet to lead some laps on the day and be a threat for the win on his way to another top 10 finish.

Winner:

It’s tough to bet against the driver who has been dominant all season long, and we aren’t going to change our ways now. Dennis Hauger, the rookie driver of the #28 for Andretti Global is taking the rest of the field out to the woodshed so far this season, posting four wins, six top 5’s and a worst finish of 8th place in seven starts, good enough for a 28 point lead in the Championship Standings over his Andretti Global teammate Lochie Hughes as we start the second half of the season at Mid-Ohio. The Norwegian Wonder has once again proven why he is the championship favorite, laying down the second fastest lap of both Practice sessions before nipping Caio Collet for the Pole by 0.1181 seconds. And that Pole run of 01:09:7431? Hauger’s sixth Pole in eight races this season, not to mention it being fast enough to become the new track record for the INDY NXT by Firestone Series at Mid-Ohio, topping, you guessed it, Caio Collet’s Pole-winning run in this race last year. I’m going to keep riding this hot hand by taking Dennis Hauger for the win in the 2025 Grand Prix at Mid-Ohio!