2025 Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Predictions

It’s been a weekend all about racing. This time of year celebrates all types of racing – be it on two wheels, four wheels, four legs, two legs… it’s all about speed. And we’re all here for it. It’s all about horsepower (heh, see what I did there?), and few weekends out of the year are as exciting as they are here in America when it comes to racing. The Kentucky Derby celebrates America’s first form of racing in the form of a single lap around Churchill Downs. The stars of F1 take to the streets of Miami, INDYCAR’s stars of today and tomorrow hit the hills of Alabama and NASCAR tackles the Lone Star state in the form of their only race at Texas Motor Speedway (which should be two races… but we won’t go there). Kick back, relax and take it all in.

Texas Motor Speedway is one of the faster intermediates the Cup Series takes on all year. It’s a 400 mile, 267 lap race around the 1.5 mile tri-oval and is home to some fairly nasty crashes and blink-of-an-eye reactions. It’s a quick, paved surface that allows for both fast pack racing and spread-out strategy racing. It’s a pretty unique track in that track temperature plays a huge role, not to mention the incredibly rough infield grass that, as we saw on Friday night, can end your night through a simple spin and a few rough bounces. Corner entry and exit is rough, and it’s easy to run into a competitor that wasn’t there just a split second ago. If Charlotte and Atlanta Motor Speedway merged together, this would be the result.

Carson Hocevar landed his first ever Cup Series pole on Saturday with a qualifying time of 28.17 seconds. Teammate Michael McDowell also landed a top 5 starting position with a time of 28.22. Aces Denny Hamlin, AJ Allmendinger and Kyle Larson also roll off in the Top 10. Let’s get to it. 

Driver to Fade:

Ouch. I love the fact the Haas remains a presence in the NASCAR world, but it hasn’t been a great start for Cole Custer this season. He rolls off P20 this afternoon (a stat that, actually, is in the positive for the #41 team, with his second Top 20 start this season), but we don’t expect the starting position to do him any favors. According to Rotoballer, Custer’s average finish here is P26, with two DNFs and two Top 20 finishes. We don’t like his betting odds this week, and we don’t look for him to compete today. Take him for a fade.

Dark Horse:

His starting spot, too, isn’t anything you’d expect out of a former Cup champion and team owner. P30 doesn’t look too promising for a guy who’s struggled mightily this season, and who currently sits at 32nd in the standings. But Texas is a strong track for the future Hall of Famer. Last year, Brad Keselowski finished P2 here after a convincing run. He’s got 14 Top 10 finishes here throughout his career. Keso tends to perform well at intermediate tracks in this Gen 7 car, and if anyone knows how to flip the script quick, he’s one of the few who does. We like him as a distant, but very real, contender this week.

Top 10:

He’s been so consistent this year – he just hasn’t been able to land it in victory lane yet. But it feels like damn near any week could be Bubba Wallace’s week. He’s been fast all weekend – tenth fastest in practice yesterday, and rolls off the grid P9, seven hundredths of a second slower than our pole sitter. Texas is a decent track for Wallace – he averages a P19 finish here but, like we said, he’s been so consistent this year. Going for a Top 10 finish for Wallace today. 

Winner:

Damnit, why’s it always gotta be Kyle Larson? Because he’s just that good. He was the winner of the Xfinity clash here at Texas yesterday afternoon after short notice landed him in Connor Zilisch’s ride after a nasty wreck at Talladega last week. And he’s, well, a threat every week. May is a month where Larson has to be totally locked in – he’s preparing for a second attempt at the Double over Memorial Day weekend, so there’s no room for error. Larson rolls off P4 to start the afternoon, and he’s already worn the cowboy hat in victory lane once this weekend. We look for him to do the same at the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY this afternoon at 3:30PM!