2025 RBC Heritage Predictions

The PGA Tour continues on this week as it visits Harbour Town Golf Links for the 2025 RBC Heritage. Harbour Town was designed by two of the greats of golf course architecture, Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus, and has hosted the RBC Heritage each year since the first edition of the tournament in 1969. This year, the course will play as a Par 71, 7,213 yard layout.

Harbour Town may not serve as the longest course on the schedule, but it does serve as one of the great ball striking courses on the PGA Tour. Harbour Town features tight fairways, some of the smallest greens on tour and plenty of those iconic, strategically-placed Pete Dye bunkers, waste areas and water hazards. With the best of the best teeing it up this week, a few areas will be key for players to separate themselves from the pack. Distance isn’t as important this week. The player who can plot their way around the course, hitting their fairways and knowing where not to hit it from the tee will have the early momentum. Strong iron play is always important, but with really small targets on the course this week (greens average 3,700 square feet vs. the tour average of 6,600 square feet), the elite iron players will take the edge in this area. Scoring is always vital, but it all hinges on the amount and intensity of the coastal winds. Four of the last five winners have reached -17 or better for the week, while 10 of the last 15 winners have finished at -15 or worse. Just taking what the course gives you and staying steady if there are less than ideal conditions can go a long way to keeping yourself in it come the weekend. Due to the green sizes, the short game will also play a bigger part this week, with players having to get up and down from thick, green-side rough, as well as plenty of sand and marshy areas awaiting those who hit it farther off line. Displaying nerves of steel and a light touch in the most pressure-packed moments, the player most in control of all aspects of their game will emerge victorious and slip into the iconic Tartan Jacket, the second most coveted jacket in all of golf.

Serving as the fifth of eight Signature Events on the schedule, the RBC Heritage produces one of the strongest, non-major fields of the year, with eight of the top 10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking teeing it up this week, including Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Åberg, Russell Henley and Justin Thomas, as well as plenty of other rising stars, including Akshay Bhatia, Jacob Bridgeman, Taylor Pendrith, Aaron Rai, Davis Thompson and Sahith Theegala, just to name a few.

Davis Love III has won the RBC Heritage the most, slipping on the iconic Tartan Jacket five times in his career. Stewart Cink and Hale Irwin have each won this tournament three times in their career, while Jim Furyk, Hubert Green, Johnny Miller, Payne Stewart, Tom Watson, Boo Weekley and Fuzzy Zoeller are all multi-time winners of this event.

Last year’s edition was won by Scottie Scheffler, who continued his dominant run last season with a three stroke victory over Sahith Theegala. Patrick Cantlay and Wyndham Clark both finished T-3, four strokes off the pace, while J.T. Poston, Patrick Rodgers, Sepp Straka and Justin Thomas all finished T-5, five strokes behind.

Player to Fade:

Golf is hard. Ask Nick Dunlap, who completely imploded while everyone was watching during the first round of the Masters Tournament last week, firing a first round total of 90 (+18), which included four double bogeys and one triple bogey, among plenty of other squares on the scorecard. He did rebound with a one under par score of 71 on day two, but the struggle is still very real for this two-time PGA Tour winner. Dunlap enters the week on the heel of four straight missed cuts, going a combined +35 over that stretch. Dunlap’s biggest woes stem from his ball striking abilities, ranking 169th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 183rd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, as well as ranking 181st in Driving Accuracy Percentage, hitting only 46% of his greens all season long. Harbour Town is a different style of course compared to Augusta, but like its counterpart, places a premium on ball striking, as it’s tough to find consistency when you have no idea where your next shot is going. Dunlap finished in a nice 69th place in this event last season, dead last in the field. Dunlap is guaranteed four rounds of golf this week in this no-cut event, but I don’t expect him to do much, and predict he will finish in the bottom quarter of the field.

Dark Horse:

J.T. Poston is a three-time tour winner, but often takes a backseat to many of the flashier studs. His game? Not that flashy, but in a good way. Poston has gained strokes in five of the six major Strokes Gained categories so far in 2025 and serves as a solid ball striker, ranking 38th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 26th in Driving Accuracy Percentage. The putting game is what makes or breaks Poston’s game, quite literally. Poston makes a lot of birdies, ranking T-9 on the year with 168 birdies made to date, but he also makes lots of bogeys, ranking 120th in Bogey Avoidance, 145th in 3-Putt Avoidance and 153rd in Strokes Gained: Putting. Because of these struggles, Poston has played well all year, but not well enough to be a contender. 10 made cuts in 11 starts, but only two top 25 finishes, with Poston posting (you’re welcome for the tongue twister) top 16 finishes at both The American Express and the WM Phoenix Open. I’m high on Poston this week strictly for his past success in this event. Poston has been absolutely feast or famine at Harbour Town, posting four top 10 finishes and two missed cuts in six starts, highlighted by top five finishes here in two of the last three years. A win is unlikely given his current putting woes, but another top 20 finish is certainly within Poston’s grasp this week.

Top 10:

Patrick Cantlay has been playing solid golf in 2025, posting two top 10’s, four top 25’s and zero missed cuts in eight starts, highlighted by T-5 finishes at both The American Express and The Genesis Invitational. There aren’t many holes in Cantlay’s game in general, as he is gaining strokes in all six of the major Strokes Gained categories, including ranking inside the top 20 in both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Approach the Green. Cantlay’s inability to get over the hump can currently be placed on a leaky short game, ranking 94th in Sand Save Percentage and 132nd in Scrambling, both crucial areas for success when trying to navigate a Pete Dye course like this one. Regardless of the state of his game, it’s impossible not to back Cantlay in this event. There’s just something about Harbour Town that brings out his best each and every year, No, he’s never won here, but the results speak for themselves. Seven starts, five top three finishes, six top 10’s and just one missed cut. It’s hard to believe that Cantlay has been winless for almost three years, last finding the Winner’s Circle at the 2022 BMW Championship. Cantlay may not bring home the W this week, but he will undoubtedly be a threat and gain some more confidence in the state of his game on his way to another RBC Heritage top 10 finish.

Winner:

I hate picking the same players to win every single week, but Sepp Straka checks all of the boxes for success this week. Straka has had a very successful 2025, winning The American Express to go along with three top 10’s and seven top 25’s in eleven starts, good enough to rank second in the FedEx Cup Standings entering the week. Straka’s game? Fucking impeccable, as he is gaining strokes in all six of the major Strokes Gained categories, including ranking inside the top six in both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Approach the Green. Straka’s ball striking? Absolutely superb, ranking 13th in Driving Accuracy Percentage and third in Greens in Regulation Percentage. Straka’s on the green performance? About as sharp as they come, ranking first in Total Birdies, second in Birdies or Better Percentage and 11th in Bogey Avoidance. The cherry on top? Straka is an absolute stud in this event, finishing in the top five in two of the last three editions. I know Straka is coming in off of a missed cut last week, but Augusta National is a much different layout than Harbour Town. After a slight hiccup last week, I predict Sepp Straka will get right back on track this week and slip into the coveted Tartan Jacket by winning the RBC Heritage!