2025 Ambetter Health 400 Predictions

The Cup Series rides on today with the 2025 Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Hosting NASCAR each year since it opened in 1960, Atlanta Motor Speedway underwent a reconfiguration prior to the races in 2022. The 1.54-mile quad-oval now features a stout 28 degrees of banking in the turns and five degrees of banking on the straightaways, making it essentially a smaller version of Daytona and Talladega. The second of two consecutive drafting races to open the season, you can once again expect plenty of action and plenty of carnage as the race goes on.

Unlike Daytona and Talladega, there is some method to the madness of Atlanta. Handling is so much more important. The draft really does make the racing so much tighter, and as a result, the side draft plays an even more important role than usual. Busch used the side draft to perfection to seal the victory yesterday, but the side draft can also kill any runs coming from behind. Being out front in that clean air will be super vital, but using that rear view mirror and blocking any potential runs will be equally important to success. As usual, four tires is better than two tires, and having a race car that handles well in both the pack and up front is gonna pay dividends. The Fords came unloaded with lots of speed, per usual, but Chevrolet and Toyota will look to see if their cars handle better as they try to work their way forward. Finally, drivers just need to avoid the carnage. The Big One can happen at any given moment on a drafting track, so don’t make any stupid moves and pray everybody around you does the same. Don’t be that guy that ruins it for everybody else. Looking at you, Wrecky Spinhouse Jr. and Joey Logano!

The Ambetter Health 400 dates back to 1960 and has produced an incredible list of winners over the past 65 seasons. Four drivers share the record for most wins in this race, with Dale Earnhardt Sr., Jimmie Johnson, Bobby Labonte and Richard Petty each winning this race four times. Neil Bonnett, Bill Elliott and Jeff Gordon each have won this race three times, while Bobby Allison, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Kasey Kahne, Brad Keselowski, Mark Martin, David Pearson, Tony Stewart, Rusty Wallace and LeeRoy Yarborough are also multiple-time winners of this race.

Last year’s edition was won by Daniel Suarez, who just edged out Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch in a three-wide finish at the line to pick up his second career victory, Blaney and Busch finished second and third after leading 31 and 28 laps on the day, respectively. Austin Cindric finished in fourth after leading 32 laps, while Bubba Wallace was the highest finishing Toyota in fifth place. Michael McDowell finished in eighth place after starting from the Pole and leading 27 laps during the race, Denny Hamlin finished in 23rd after leading 15 laps, Todd Gilliland finished in 26th after leading a race-high 58 laps, Joey Logano finished in 28th after leading 27 laps and Kyle Larson finished in 32nd, leading 17 laps on the day. 14 different drivers led at least one lap during the race.

Coverage of the 2025 Ambetter Health 400 can be seen on FOX, with pre-race beginning at 2 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 3 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

Kyle Larson has gotten off to a slow start in 2025, posting a 17th place finish at the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray and a 20th place showing at the DAYTONA 500. I know it comes as a surprise that I would ever fade a driver of Larson’s caliber, but Larson absolutely blows on drafting tracks, plain and simple. Atlanta has proven to be an extremely futile track for Larson since Atlanta was reconfigured prior to the 2022 races. In six starts at the “New Atlanta,” Larson has five finishes of 30th or worse. His best finish during this stretch? 13th, which occurred at the summer race in 2022. Larson’s results on drafting tracks in 2024? Not a whole lot better. I will give credit where credit is due, as Larson did post a top five finish at Talladega during the playoffs, but he also posted finishes of 11-32-21-21-37 in the other five drafting races. Larson starts today’s race from the 17th position on the grid and will look to get his 2025 season back on track. I just don’t have the confidence in Larson to not get caught up in an incident, so I have no issues fading him and I predict that he will not better his previous best finish of 13th place at “New Atlanta.”

Dark Horse:

Justin Haley gets nowhere near enough credit for his drafting track prowess. An eight-time winner across the Cup, Xfinity and Craftsman Truck Series, five of those wins have come on drafting tracks. Mix that with five other top 5’s and 12 other top 10’s at Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta and y’all should be building this man a damn statue. Regardless, Haley has shown plenty of prowess on this style of track and continues to do so in 2025, locking down a 5th place finish at the Craftsman Truck Series race at Daytona last week. Haley has been sneaky good at Atlanta since the reconfiguration, posting four top 12 finishes and no finishes worse than 22nd in six starts, with a best finish of 7th coming in the summer race in 2022. Haley will start today’s race from the 21st position and will look to avoid the early chaos in mid-pack so he can sneak in late for the kill. A win is unlikely, as Atlanta typically requires more raw speed when compared to Daytona and Talladega and least we forget that Haley races for Spire Motorsports. Even so, Haley is often able to get the most out of his equipment and he should easily log another top 15 finish on a drafting track.

Top 10:

The defending winner of this race, Daniel Suarez won this race in style, beating Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch back to the finish line by 0.003 seconds, the fourth closest finish in Cup Series history. Now, for those of you that have been following me for a bit, you know that I’m not often impressed by Suarez, but those feelings are out the window for this week only. For whatever reason, ever since the reconfiguration at Atlanta, Suarez has been locked in, finishing 4-6-29-2-1-2 in six starts. Despite all of this success, Suarez has led only a mere five laps and has an average starting position of 20.7 at Atlanta. The prophecy continues to line up for another successful race for Suarez, as he will be coming deep from the field from the 29th starting spot. Suarez finished 13th last week in a wild finish to the DAYTONA 500 and I predict that he will once again be in the mix for another Atlanta victory and bring home his first top 10 finish of the season.

Winner:

The winner of yesterday’s Craftsman Truck Series race in a photo finish, Kyle Busch is hungry. Currently on a 58-race winless streak, Busch is trying to not fade into oblivion in the waning years of his Cup Series career. 2024 was statistically the worst season of Busch’s career, posting five top 5’s, 10 top 10’s and leading only 229 laps on the way to a 20th place finish in the point standings. Drafting tracks are very unpredictable, but Busch has put together some great results on them over the past few seasons, with a win at Talladega, five top 5’s and 10 top 10’s since the start of the 2022 season, which frankly, is pretty damn good, given the wreckfests we typically see at these types of tracks. Busch has not won in the Cup Series on the new Atlanta configuration, but has found a good rhythm of late, brining home four straight top 10 finishes, including the photo finish last spring, where he finished 0.007 seconds behind Suarez in third place. Busch also won the last two truck races held at Atlanta, so he has a bit more experience and a lot more confidence than many of his fellow Cup Series drivers at this track. Busch starts today from the sixth position, so expect him to get up front early and pace the way throughout the race. We predict that race #59 will be the lucky one for Kyle Busch, with Rowdy ending his Cup Series winless streak and giving Birdies and Burnouts a weekend sweep with the victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway!