2025 DAYTONA 500 Predictions

The Cup Series officially kicks off today as it takes to the track at Daytona International Speedway for the 67th running of the DAYTONA 500. The 2.5-mile superspeedway features 31 degrees of banking in the turns, 18 degrees of banking in the tri-oval and three degrees of banking on the back straightway. Having hosted NASCAR twice annually since it opened in 1959, Daytona serves as the ultimate test of skill, speed and luck to start off a brand-new campaign. Today, 41 drivers will look to add their names to history by winning the Super Bowl of Stock Car Racing and adding their name to the iconic Harley J. Earl Trophy, all the while chasing after a $30 million purse, the richest the sport offers.

Strategy-wise? I could sit here and pull your leg and blow bag about the usual tire and fuel strategies and track position and other key areas for success, but I won’t. All drafting tracks are a crapshoot. The Big One can happen to anyone at anyplace at anytime. Everyone from the leader to the driver in dead last can get caught up in the carnage. No one is safe. No strategy is truly foolproof on a drafting track. At the end of the day, just do your best to avoid the Big One and for the love of God, don’t be the dickhead who throws a shit block and ruins the day for half the field. With weather also lurking in the forecast, expect the aggression to ramp up early, which means expect plenty of chaos and lots of movers and shakers cutting their way and falling back through the field.

The DAYTONA 500 dates back to 1959 and the list of winners reads like a true list of Hall of Famers, along with the occasional underdog winner thrown in for great measure. Richard Petty won the 500 the most times, winning this race seven times in his illustrious career. The late Cale Yarborough sits second on the list with four DAYTONA 500 victories. Three-time winners of The Great American Race include Bobby Allison, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and Dale Jarrett, while Dale Earnhardt Jr., Bill Elliott, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Sterling Marlin and Michael Waltrip are also multiple-time winners of the DAYTONA 500.

Last year’s edition was won by William Byron, who led the final four laps and outlasted both the weather and carnage in a Monday race to win his first DAYTONA 500 during Hendrick Motorsports’ 40th anniversary season. Byron’s teammate, Alex Bowman, finished in the runner-up spot, while Christopher Bell was the highest finishing Toyota in third, leading 22 laps on the day. Superspeedway ringer Corey LaJoie finished in fourth, while Bubba Wallace rounded out the top five. Pole sitter Joey Logano led the most laps on the day, pacing the way for 45 laps, before getting caught up in a wreck and finishing in 32nd place. 20 different drivers led at least one lap during the race.

Coverage of the 67th running of the DAYTONA 500 can be seen on FOX, with pre-race beginning at 11:30 AM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 1:30 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

This one probably comes as a surprise, but hear me out. Todd Gilliland had his best season to date in 2024, picking up four top 10’s and leading 130 laps on the way to a 22nd place finish in the point standings. Most importantly, Gilliland qualified in the top five in five of his six starts on drafting tracks, and was often a bulldog at this style of racing alongside his former teammate, Michael McDowell. Want to know how many of those starts resulted in top 10 finishes? Only one of them. Gilliland had five finishes of 23rd or worse in those six races, which really isn’t super inspiring coming into the biggest race of the season. Gilliland in general has struggled at Daytona, leading a mere 23 laps and not registering a single top 20 finish in six career starts at the track. Gilliland has shown speed all week across the Practice sessions, Qualifying and The Duels, rolling out from the 14th position this afternoon. Also worth noting is that Gilliland will be without his regular crew chief today, as Chris Lawson was ejected due to improper weights being found on the car earlier in the week. Gilliland will undoubtedly have pace today and may even lead some laps, but I just don’t see him making it to the finish, as I predict he will finish outside the top 20 once again.

Dark Horse:

2024 did not have a ton of bright spots for John Hunter Nemechek, who did pick up four top 10 finishes, but finished 34th in the point standings thanks to an average finish of 25.42, the worst of his full-time career. It’s no secret that Legacy Motor Club has struggled as a whole, as teammates Erik Jones and Jimmie Johnson have also notably struggled on the track. So, you must be wondering, why would I back Legacy Motor Club for anything? Well, I’m glad you asked. Nemechek may be the world’s greatest dark horse coming into his race. In four trips to Daytona, he has never finished outside the top 15 at this track, including snagging a best finish of 7th in this race last season. Nemechek also has a pair of top 10’s at Talladega in his brief career, showing the world that he has the ability to avoid the calamity and be in the hunt for a quality finish coming down the backstretch of the final lap. A perennial contender at drafting tracks across the Cup, Xfinity and Truck Series, Nemechek has shown solid pace during Speedweeks, consistently being one of the fastest Toyotas on the track during Practice. Nemechek will start from the 18th position, but don’t expect anything flashy early on. I predict that my fellow Gemini (We also share a birthday, with Nemechek having an extra year of wisdom on me.) will stay out back early on to avoid the chaos and position himself for another quality finish. Lock in JHN for another top 15 finish at Daytona!

Top 10:

Oooh! I just felt that vein pop in your head! You better believe we are backing Bubba Wallace today. In spite of what the haters proclaim in the town square, Wallace had a career season in 2024. No, he didn’t make the playoffs, but he had six top 5’s and 14 top 10’s, both career highs, as well as an average finish of 15.28, his best total to date. As you may know, Wallace has quite the knack for finding his way around Daytona, with three top five finishes in the DAYTONA 500, including a pair of runner-ups in 2018 and 2022, as well as three additional top six finishes in the Coke Zero Sugar 400, highlighted by a runner-up performance in 2021. Least of all do I mention, with great pleasure, Wallace’s victory at Talladega, another drafting track. Wallace became a father for the first time last fall, which I personally feel has helped him put things into perspective better. Wallace put up solid results during the playoffs, with a top five showing at Bristol, three other top 10’s and just one finish outside the top 20 during that stretch. Which leads us back to this week. Wallace, with fresh perspective in tow, has gotten off to a terrific start to Speedweeks, winning Duel Race #1 and showing solid pace throughout the Practice sessions. Wallace starts a career-best of third in the DAYTONA 500 this afternoon, and will no doubt be a factor all race long. I predict that Wallace will round out the week with a strong on-track showing and another top 10 finish at Daytona.

Winner:

Christopher Bell put up incredible numbers in 2024, hauling in three wins, 15 top 5’s, 23 top 10’s, 1,145 laps led and an average finish of 12.81. Bell ultimately finished 5th in the point standings and missed out on a third straight trip to Phoenix in search of a championship after a controversial finish at Martinsville that saw him be eliminated on a technicality in one of NASCAR’s most iconic and controversial rules kerffules of recent yore. Bell is hungry for even more in 2025 and hopes to overwrite the ending of last season come November. Bell is in prime position to start the season in a big way, as he has been an absolute stud at Daytona of late. Bell has three top three finishes in his last four Daytona starts, including back-to-back third place finishes in The Great American Race. Bell has led 42 laps in the DAYTONA 500 over the last two years and has once again unloaded at Daytona with high hopes. Bell showed solid pace in Practice, but struggled during his Duel Race, finishing in 10th place to lock up a 20th place starting spot on the grid, his worst ever starting position in the DAYTONA 500. With weather lurking in the forecast today, the chaos will likely start earlier than usual. Fortunately for Bell, his last two victories have involved, for him at least, a fortunate weather pattern, picking up a victory utilizing the wet weather tires at the USA Today 301 at New Hampshire and taking home a Crown Jewel victory in a weather-shortened Coca Cola 600. The DAYTONA 500 has certainly produced some surprise winners over the years (How’s it hanging, Derrike Cope?), but sometimes, the favorites are the favorite for a reason. In the biggest race of the season, I predict that Bell will find redemption and hoist up that Haley J. Earl trophy by winning the DAYTONA 500!