2024 South Point 400 Predictions

Four races to go, and eight drivers remaining. The playoffs are more than in full swing, and the Round of 8 begins with an incredibly fast oval in Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Not even a lap into the race, and the playoff grid has already taken on a different shape. Midway through practice, the #12 team suffered a major setback when defending Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney blew a left rear and spun into the outside wall, damaging the entire driver’s side, and rendering what was sure to be a promising qualifying attempt into a P37 to begin the race. In other news, the top of the field is loaded with playoff talent, with perennials Chrisopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson all weighing in at the Top 5. Conventional wisdom and past results here tell us that Kyle Larson will punch his ticket into the Championship 4 on Sunday afternoon, but as we’ve seen, anything can and, frankly, will happen. And who can forget about Alex Bowman’s DQ last week that catapulted Joey Logano into the tail end of the Round of 8? It’s perhaps the most stacked a Round of 8 has ever been. The grid is set, and the flag is about to wave. Let’s get to it. 

Driver to Fade:

Damn, has this slot been a tough one (more so than the winner) to pick this year, given the increasingly level playing field and developing talent. It’s bittersweet choosing an SHR guy to fade at this point in the season, but the data and results don’t help his case. Ryan Preece begins P32 on Sunday afternoon, and his average finish rings in at 24th place in all starts at this track. Hope this guy can finish the season strong, but just not seeing it here.

Dark Horse:

There was a point midway through the Round of 12 where it looked like the driver of the #2 Penske Dark Horse Mustang just might make his case for the Round of 8. But, as racing fate would have it, well… not to be. But don’t look for Austin Cindric to slow down in the coming weeks. While he didn’t make very impressive lap times on Saturday evening during practice, he begins P11 on Sunday afternoon. His finish here in the spring was an unimpressive P29, but this man has shown speed in recent weeks, and consistency at that. OK, so maybe the data doesn’t fully support our prediction here, but we’re gonna go with our gut on this one. Look for Cindric to compete. 

Top 10:

Hard to bet against this guy any week. For a guy who’s made a deep run, he’s had quite a quiet 2024 campaign. Teammate Denny Hamlin may be carrying most of JGR’s headlines heading deep into the playoffs, but look for Christopher Bell to make some noise at this stage in the game. He came oh so close in Phoenix last year. With a bitter taste in his mouth, don’t look for him to pull up short now. Bell is poised for a solid performance in Vegas on Sunday afternoon. 

Winner:

We just don’t have it in us this week to bet against a guy who’s on one hell of a tear. Since his mishap at Atlanta, Larson has put himself in prime position. He led 62 laps in his dominant victory last week at the Roval and put on a clinic a few races back in Bristol. He begins 5th on Sunday, has already notched three wins here, and is a force to be reckoned with every single week. No reason not to take the bait this week. We’re taking Kyle Larson to win the South Point 400 here on Sunday afternoon at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.