The Cup Series continues on today with the 2024 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. First opened in 1968 and first serving as host to NASCAR in 1969, Michigan International Speedway is 2 mile, D-shaped asphalt oval with 18 degrees of banking in the turns, 12 degrees of banking on the frontstretch and five degrees of banking on the backstretch that is one of the trickiest tracks on the schedule due to its high speeds and difficulty that comes with passing. Lately, this race has been dominated by Ford, winning this race each of the last six years (Kevin Harvick in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022, Ryan Blaney in 2021 and Chris Buescher in 2023). Will Ford return to Victory Lane for the seventh consecutive year? Or will Chevy or Toyota finally put their foot down? With this race being geographically closest to Detroit, manufacturers get a little extra bragging rights for winning this particular race.
To find success today, drivers will have to stay patient. With Qualifying being rained out and being set instead by the metric, expect a lot of movement early on as drivers rise and fall through the field as the best drivers try to find their way to the front. Once the initial dust settles though, passing will become much more difficult. With high speeds and drafting, pulling out of line to try and make a pass is quite difficult. Oftentimes, the only way to successfully make a pass is if two drivers pull out of line in hopes of one or both drivers clearing the driver in front of them. Can you make up ground on track? Yes, it’s possible. But having to come from deep in the field is not ideal, given the length of time it takes to pass and the difficulty of passing. The preferred lane is around the top, but passes can be made around the bottom if you stay patient and time your passes properly. It might take 5 or 10 laps to get the right momentum to complete the pass, so patience will truly be a virtue this afternoon. With conditions like this on track, track position is always going to be king. The less amount of passes you have to make on track, the better. Depending on when the cautions fall, some two-tire pit stops to pick up that valuable track position could quite easily change the running order of the race. Those types of calls will depend on how aggressive Crew Chiefs are wanting to be today. Finally, a lot of this strategy can go right out the window due to weather. With rain lurking in the forecast, the weather will be the ultimate race deciding factor. With Michigan International Speedway not having lights, a rain delay would end the race if they are past the 100 lap mark this afternoon. Until the weather gets closer, drivers will plan on racing the full 200 laps, but that could change quickly based on how close the rains get to the track.
The FireKeepers Casino 400 was first held in 1969 and has produced a great list of winners and champions of the sport, including David Pearson, Charlie Glotzbach, Bobby Allison, Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Cale Yarborough, Bill Elliott, Davey Allison, Rusty Wallace, Mark Martin, Dale Jarrett, Harry Gant, Geoffrey Bodine, Bobby Labonte, Jeff Gordon, Sterling Marlin, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle, Jeremy Mayfield, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, Carl Edwards, Brian Vickers, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney and Chris Buescher, just to name a few.
David Pearson and Kevin Harvick hold the record for most victories in this race, with each of them finding Victory Lane six times. Richard Petty, Bill Elliott, Mark Martin and Dale Jarrett each have a trio of wins in this race, while Bobby Allison, Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip, Bobby Labonte, Rusty Wallace, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth and Kyle Larson have each won this race twice.
Last year’s edition was won by Chris Buescher, who survived the rain and found Victory Lane on Monday after leading a race high 52 laps to win for the second straight week. Martin Truex Jr. finished in second place after sweeping the stages and leading 47 laps on the day, while Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Kyle Larson all led laps on the day on the way to rounding out the top five.
Coverage of the FireKeepers Casino 400 can be seen on the USA Network, with pre-race beginning at 2 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 2:30 PM EST.
Josh Berry is in a tight battle with Carson Hocevar for the Rookie of the Year crown thanks to his two top 5’s and four top 10’s, good enough to rank 23rd in points, a mere two points behind Hocevar. Since his 3rd place finish at New Hampshire, Berry has struggled mightily over the last two months, mustering just two top 20’s in his last five starts, highlighted by a 14th place finish last Sunday at Richmond. Michigan doesn’t seem like it’ll be the track for Berry to turn it around, as he logged the 28th fastest lap of Practice. Berry finished 26th and 34th in his two previous Michigan starts, not exactly inspired results. Fortunately for Berry, he will roll out from 16th position today thanks to Qualifying being rained out and being set by the metric. Despite the good break with Qualifying, I expect Berry to continue to struggle at Michigan and finish outside the top 20 this afternoon.
Despite being a rookie driving for Spire Motorsports, Carson Hocevar has exceeded expectations, earning three top 10’s and 14 top 20 finishes to go against just one DNF, all of which is good enough to lead the Rookie of the Year standings by a mere two points over Stewart-Haas Racing’s Josh Berry. Unlike Berry, Hocevar has put together a very consistent stretch together during these summer months, finishing in the top 20 in eight of his last nine starts and logging back-to-back top 12 finishes, including an 8th place finish amid last week’s chaos at Richmond. Hocevar seems to bring the speed no matter what the track configuration is, logging quality finishes on short tracks, superspeedways and everything in between. That being said, Hocevar is flexing that prowess again this weekend, logging the 8th fastest lap of Practice. Hocevar has also found success of late on high speed, difficult to pass on tracks, finishing 17th at Pocono and 12th at Indianapolis. Hocevar rolls off from the 11th position today and I predict that he will be able to maintain his track position on the way to a third straight top 15 finish.
This may come as a more surprising choice, but hear me out. Despite what the haters preach, Bubba Wallace is having arguably his best season to date, with five top 5’s and nine top 10’s on the campaign so far, good enough to rank 12th in the Driver Standings, but only 15th in the Playoff Standings. Michigan has been a fruitful track for Wallace, regardless of what the stats show. Wallace has one top five, two top 10’s and 6 top 20’s in 10 Cup starts at Michigan. Not the best, not the worst, somewhere right in mid-pack (as the haters start to gloat). Wallace has led 43 laps at Michigan over the past two races, including a runner-up showing in 2022 behind Kevin Harvick. Wallace also won at Michigan in the Craftsman Truck Series in 2017, so he knows how to find success at this track. Wallace has shown speed so far this weekend, logging the 5th fastest lap of Practice and showing great speed on both 5 and 10 Lap Averages. Bubba Wallace is a very mental driver; when he has success on track, the good finishes usually start to come in bunches and lately has been no different, as Wallace has had back-to-back top 5 finishes, three straight top 10’s and five straight top 15’s. With a top five starting position today, I have no doubt that Wallace will keep the momentum going and be in the mix for the win today on his way to another top 10 finish.
Your defending Cup Series Champion, Ryan Blaney has put together a great defense of his title so far, with two wins, seven top 5’s and 11 top 10’s, good enough to rank 5th in points. Michigan has been a great track for Blaney, with one win, five top 5’s and eight top 10’s at the two-mile oval in 15 career starts. Blaney has arguably been the most successful of late on high speed, difficult to pass tracks, winning at Pocono and finishing 3rd after a controversial finish at Indianapolis. Blaney started 8th and 7th in those two starts, respectively, and it seems like things are shaping up to once again follow that pathway this weekend. Blaney laid down the 11th fastest lap of Practice and ranked inside the top 10 on both 5 and 10 Lap Averages, and thanks to Qualifying being set by the metric, Blaney will roll out from the 8th position (Oh yeah, it’s all coming together now). Michigan has turned into an unofficial superspeedway of late, with lots of single file, ride around the top racing strategies and passing most often occurring on restarts and when drivers have help from behind in order to clear the driver in front of them. Today will be a chess match and a game of patience, although that could change quickly depending on if the rains come close to the track. Regardless, Blaney is one of the most patient drivers out there and seemingly always finds himself at the front of these types of races, which is why I predict that Blaney will pick up his third victory of the season and his second in the Irish Hills of Michigan at Michigan International Speedway!
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