The PGA Tour continues on this week as it visits TPC Deere Run for the 2024 John Deere Classic. Designed by former PGA Tour player turned golf course architect D. A. Weibring, TPC Deere Run was opened in 2000 and has played host to the PGA Tour ever since, with this year’s layout playing as a Par 71, 7,289 yard layout.
Another relatively short course by PGA Tour standards, TPC Deere Run is the third straight course that is expected to play host to a birdie-fest this week, with 11 of the last 14 winners of this event finishing at -20 or better for the week. So right out of the gate, you better be making your birdies and you better be making them in bunches. To set yourself up for scoring chances, you better be a solid ball striker. Hitting your greens is going to be vital to giving yourself some looks at birdies this week. Hitting the greens is half the battle. Once you make it onto the greens, your putter better be working. A good ball striking week is all going to be for naught if you can’t get the putts to fall. Two dozen birdies, give or take, ought to do it. So you’ll want to hit your greens, but you’re also going to want to give yourself some marketable putts in the process. The field this week isn’t the strongest, which means we’ll be seeing a lot of rookies teeing it up and a lot of players looking for that first win. You’re going to see a lot of aggression on a very gettable course, but you’ll also see some nerves as the holes tick off and the pressure mounts. As always, the right level of aggression and intelligence will be key to success, but keeping your emotions in check will also go a long way towards finding success. You’ve got to keep your foot on the gas to keep pace in an event like this, but don’t overdo it and rack up a ton of bogeys or your chances of winning will decrease greatly.
The John Deere Classic was first held in 1971 and has produced a solid list of winners throughout the years, including Deane Beman, Dave Stockton, Roger Maltbie, D. A. Weibring, Scott Hoch, Payne Stewart, Dan Forsman, Mark Wiebe, Kenny Knox, Blaine McCallister, Curt Byrum, Joey Sindelar, David Frost, Mark McCumber, Ed Fiori, David Toms, Steve Jones, J. P. Hayes, Vijay Singh, Mark Hensby, Sean O’Hair, John Senden, Jonathan Byrd, Kenny Perry, Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, Ryan Moore, Bryson DeChambeau, Michael Kim, Dylan Frittelli, Lucas Glover, J. T. Poston and Sepp Straka, just to name a few.
D. A. Weibring and Steve Stricker share the title for most wins in this event, with each of them finding victory here 3 times, with Stricker doing it in 3 consecutive years (2009, 2010 and 2011). Deane Beman, Scott Hoch, David Frost and Jordan Spieth have all found victory here 2 times each.
The 18 hole scoring record for the John Deere Classic is 59, which was achieved by Paul Goydos during the first round in 2010. Both the 72 hole scoring record and the 72 hole scoring record to par is 257 (-27), which was achieved by Michael Kim during his victory in 2018.
Last year’s edition was won by Sepp Straka, who came from deep on the final day by shooting a 9-under par 62 to win by two strokes over Alex Smalley and Brendon Todd to pick up his second career PGA Tour victory. Ludvig Åberg and Adam Schenk both finished T-4, three strokes back.
The winner of the FedEx Cup in 2012, Brandt Snedeker has battled the injury bug in recent years and is frankly, a shell of his former self. Playing this season on a Major Medical Exemption, Snedeker has been, well, pretty bad. In 17 starts, Snedeker has made it to the weekend just four times, one of which was a 40th place finish at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, a team event. His other three made cuts? A best finish of T-48 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. Snedeker is losing strokes in each of the six major Strokes Gained categories and his game is in rough shape all the way across the board. Snedeker has had past success here. In fact, he finished T-2 here many years ago in 2009, which is a testament to his longevity on tour. However, Snedeker has missed the cut in the John Deere Classic each of the last two years and has failed to register a round in the 60’s in either start. I’m genuinely a fan of Snedeker. I actually got his autograph at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational on the cover of a Golf Digest that he appeared on many years back. Nevertheless, Snedeker has a lot of work to do to get his game back on track and he will easily miss the cut this week.
You can make a case for this being one of my longest long shot picks of the season, but hear me out. Greyson Sigg doesn’t exactly jump to the front of your mind when you think of young studs on the PGA Tour, but Sigg is actually having a quietly decent season, with 2 top 10’s and 5 top 25’s in 18 starts. However he has 8 missed cuts to go against 10 made cuts, including missed cuts in his 4 of his last 6 starts. His recent form may not be the best, but overall, he is a solid ball striker, which bodes well for success this week. Sigg ranks 14th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and 20th in Greens in Regulation Percentage, which is good in an event where the winning score is routinely in the ballpark of -20. However, Sigg is a notoriously bad putter, ranking 158th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Most importantly, Sigg has great mojo in this event, finishing inside the top 20 in both of his starts here. A win would be unheralded, but given his recent form, another top 25 finish in this event is certainly doable.
Fresh off of a career best T-2 finish last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Aaron Rai is having arguably his best season to date, with 3 top 10’s, 8 top 25’s and just 4 missed cuts in 18 starts. Rai is an elite ball striker, which pays off in weeks where the scoring is low. Rai ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, 7th in Driving Accuracy Percentage, 2nd in Greens in Regulation Percentage and 32nd in Total Birdies, all of which are key to giving yourself a chance to go low. However, much like Sigg, Rai is also held back by a bulky putter, ranking 107th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season. Despite Rai’s putting woes, it can almost be overlooked, given his two best finishes of the campaign have come in birdie-fest events (-17 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, T-2 and -20 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, T-4). Rai has never teed it up in the John Deere Classic before, which can cause some folks to take a pause, but players who find success at the Rocket Mortgage Classic often find success in this event and vice versa. Rai is too good not to win on tour and his breakthrough win will be coming soon. But until then, lock in Aaron Rai for another top 10 finish this week.
Sungjae Im has quietly played some great golf this season, with 5 top 10’s and 8 top 25’s in 18 starts, including 4 top 10’s in his last 6 starts. Im doesn’t excel in one area of his game more than the other, ranking inside the top 50 in 4 of the 6 major Strokes Gained categories. Where Im does excel is going low, as he finished T-5 at The Sentry earlier this season where he finished at -25 for the week and he is fresh off of a T-3 finish at the Travelers Championship where he finished the week at -20. To correlate with that, Im ranks 30th on tour this season in Total Birdies, making 239 so far to date, and 28th in Birdies or Better Conversion Percentage, converting his scoring opportunities at a 33.33% average. Im hasn’t had the greatest track record in this event, but he hasn’t struggled either, making the cut in both of his previous starts, with a best finish of T-26 coming in 2019. Oftentimes, the players who find success here are ones who contend every year. I expect that Im will be the anomaly to that rule this year. Incredibly, despite his constant leadboard presence, Im has only two PGA Tour wins to date, with his most recent one coming at the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open. A player of Im’s caliber is too talented to remain winless for much longer and I predict that he will capitalize in a weaker field and take home the victory in the John Deere Classic!
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