The Cup Series continues on today with the 2024 USA TODAY 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. First opened in 1990 and first serving as host to NASCAR in 1993, New Hampshire Motor Speedway is 1.058 mile asphalt and granite oval with minimal banking (2-7 degrees in the corner, 1 degree on the straightaways) that has often been considered the benchmark for teams at the halfway point of the season to see where they stack up as they make their push in the second half for a Championship.
To find success today, drivers will have to stay patient. Drivers on the outside are typically in the preferred lane, which means drivers will have to make the majority of their passes around the bottom. Now, unless the driver on the outside slips up, making the pass on the bottom is difficult. It might take 5 laps or longer to set the move and fully complete the pass. So staying patient and not forcing anything is key. 301 laps is a long way to make up ground. 4 tires is almost undoubtedly the way to go. As we saw in the Xfinity Series race yesterday, 2 tires were able to hold up coming down the stretch, as evidenced by Parker Kligerman finishing 7th after surviving the late race carnage. But on long runs, drivers will absolutely want 4 fresh Mr. Feel-Goods all race long. Lastly, track position is king. Can you make up ground from the back? Yes, you can, but it takes a lot of time to pick your way through the field. If drivers are bold enough to try contrarian strategies and are able to pull it off, they will ultimately find their way to the front, where they are hoping to stay. New Hampshire has often served as a preview of what we might see in Phoenix, as drivers who find success here often find success there as well. With Qualifying being rained out and the lineup being set instead by the metric, expect a lot of movement early on as drivers rise and fall through the field as the best drivers try to find their way to the front.
The USA TODAY 301 was first held in 1993 and has produced a great list of winners and champions of the sport, including Rusty Wallace, Ricky Rudd, Jeff Gordon, Ernie Irvan, Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Dale Jarrett, Ward Burton, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, Brian Vickers, Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr., just to name a few. Jeff Burton has the most wins in this race, finding Victory Lane 3 times over 3 straight years from 1997 through 1999, while Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski each have 2 wins apiece at The Magic Mile.
Last year’s edition was won by Martin Truex Jr., who started the day in second position, swept the stages and led a dominating 254 laps to take home his first New Hampshire victory. Joey Logano snagged the runner-up spot, with Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski rounding out the top 5.
Coverage of the USA TODAY 301 can be seen on the USA Network, with green flag coverage beginning at 2 PM EST.
I’m sure you did a spit take when you saw the picture, but yes, I am fading Kyle Busch today. 2024 has been a struggle for Busch, with just 2 top 5’s and 5 top 10’s in 17 starts. Busch has been rather cold of late, finishing outside the top 10 in each of the last 5 points races, including 3 finishes of 27th or worse during this stretch. His New Hampshire results? Not that good of late, with 4 straight finishes outside the top 10, with 3 of those races ending in DNFs for Busch. Busch logged the 26th fastest lap of an extremely abbreviated Practice session yesterday and has not had much success on relatively flat tracks this season, finishing 22nd at Phoenix, 16th at Martinsville and 35th at World Wide Technology Raceway. It’s hard to bet against Busch most races, but I don’t expect him to be much of a factor today from a 30th place starting position and I predict that he will log another finish outside the top 15.
Currently trailing Josh Berry by a mere 12 points in the Rookie of the Year Standings, Carson Hocevar has put together a solid campaign in his freshman season at Spire Motorsports, earning 2 top 10’s, 5 top 15’s and 9 top 20’s to slide into 23rd in the Point Standings. Arguably the face of Spire Motorsports now (sorry, not sorry, Corey LaJoie), Hocevar brought the heat during the brief Practice session yesterday, logging the fastest lap of Practice, as well as pacing the field on 5 lap averages. Unlike Busch, Hocevar has had some of his best finishes of the season on relatively flat tracks, finishing 15th at Phoenix, 17th at Martinsville and a career best 8th at World Wide Technology Raceway. Now, does Hocevar have a car capable of winning? Absolutely not. But if Hocevar keeps doing what he’s been doing, I have no doubt he will pick up another top 15 finish.
After a long journey through the wilderness, Brad Keselowski finally got his groove back in 2024 and ended a 110-race winless streak, which should make the competition nervous. Entering his third season as a driver/owner for Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, Keselowski is driving like his old self again, with 1 win, 7 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s, good enough to rank 9th in the Point Standings. Keselowski rides that momentum in to arguably one of his best tracks in New Hampshire Motor Speedway, where he has earned 2 wins, 10 top 5’s, 16 top 10’s, 20 top 20’s and led 598 laps in 23 starts. Keselowski has had 5 straight top 10 finishes at New Hampshire, including 1 win and 3 top 5’s during this stretch, and is seemingly picking right back up where he left off this weekend, logging the 3rd fastest lap of Practice. Keselowski will roll out from the 9th position and will undoubtedly be one of the cars in the hunt this afternoon. I predict that he will pitch us a great race today (see what I did there) and guide the #6 BuildSubmarines.com Ford Mustang that’s rocking a sweet Boston Red Sox wrap to another top 10 finish at New Hampshire.
Not a huge surprise with this pick. Christopher Bell has put together a solid campaign in 2024, with 2 wins, 5 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s to date. Bell started the week off strong with his loose lips by accidentally revealing who the new driver of the #19 car was going to be for next season. With his slip on display for the whole world to see, Bell was definitely hoping to have his performance on the track become the main talk and fortunately for Bell, they are at arguably his most dominant track. The winner of yesterday’s Xfinity Series race, Bell is pretty good to say the least at New Hampshire. In 2 Craftsman Truck Series starts, Bell has 1 win, 1 runner-up and 84 laps led. In 4 Xfinity Series starts, he has never lost here, winning 4 times and leading 473 laps along the way. In the Cup Series, his record isn’t as sterling, but still pretty solid. 4 starts, 1 win, 1 runner-up and 43 laps led in his young career. So in total: 10 starts, 6 wins, 8 top 5’s and exactly 600 laps led across the top 3 series at New Hampshire. Bell has also had success on the relatively flat tracks this season, winning at Phoenix, a track where success there often means you’ll find success at New Hampshire, and finishing 7th at World Wide Technology Raceway, where he was battling with Ryan Blaney for the lead late before dealing with engine issues. Bell is going to rely heavily on his past experience today, as he did not turn a single lap in Practice yesterday. However, he rolls off from 4th position and will undoubtedly work his way forward early. I have no doubt that Christopher Bell will be the driver to beat today and will be hoisting up the famous Loudon the Lobster in Victory Lane with a win at New Hampshire!
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