2024 RBC Canadian Open Predictions

The PGA Tour carries on this week as it visits Hamilton Golf & Country Club for the 2024 RBC Canadian Open. Originally designed by Harry Colt in 1914 and redesigned from 2019 to 2021 by Martin Ebert, Hamilton Golf & Country Club will play as a Par 70, 7,084 yard layout this week.

A 6-time host of the Canadian Open, Hamilton Golf & Country Club is an old school style layout that places a premium on ball striking. At just over 7,000 yards from the tips, the course is very gettable by PGA Tour standards. To find success here, the winner must go low. With the winner finish at -22 the last time Hamilton Golf & Country Club hosted the Canadian Open and the last 5 Canadian Open winners finishing at -17 or better, putting yourself in scoring positions and draining your putts will go a long way towards finding success. Being a good putter helps your chances this week, but being in great control of your irons is going to be even more imperative in order to give yourself those scoring chances. If you aren’t hitting your greens, you aren’t going to go low and if you don’t go low, you won’t win this week. Lastly, avoid that big number. With scores expected to be very low this week, having lots of squares on your scorecard is a no go. Just keeping a level head by avoiding big mistakes and not making bad problems worse will go a long way towards keeping you in the hunt as the weekend commences.

The RBC Canadian Open has an illustrious history, first taking place in 1904 and have an illustrious list of champions over the past 120+ years. Winners include Jack Oke, George Cumming, Charlie Murray, Percy Barrett, Albert Murray, Karl Keffer, Daniel Kenny, George Sargent, James Douglas Edgar, William Trovinger, Al Waltrous, Clarence Hackney, Leo Diegel, Macdonald Smith, Tommy Armour, Walter Hagen, Harry Cooper, Joe Kirkwood Sr., Gene Kunes, Lawson Little, Sam Snead, Jug McSpaden, Craig Wood, Byron Nelson, George Fazio, Bobby Locke, Charles Congdon, Dutch Harrison, Jim Ferrier, Johnny Palmer, Dave Douglas, Pat Fletcher, Arnold Palmer, Doug Sanders, George Bayer, Wes Ellis, Doug Ford, Art Wall Jr., Jacky Culpit,, Ted Kroll, Kel Nagle, Gene Littler, Don Massengale, Billy Casper, Bob Charles, Tommy Aaron, Kermit Zarley, Lee Trevino, Gay Brewer, Tom Weiskopf, Bobby Nichols, Jerry Pate, Bruce Lietzke, Bob Gilder, Peter Oosterhuis, John Cook, Greg Norman, Curtis Strange, Bob Murphy, Ken Green, Steve Jones, Wayne Levi, Nick Price, David Frost, Mark O’Meara, Dudley Hart. Billy Andrade, Hal Sutton, Tiger Woods, Scott Verplank, John Rollins, Bob Tway, Vijay Singh, Mark Calcavecchia, Jim Furyk, Chez Reavie, Nathan Green, Carl Pettersson, Sean O’Hair, Scott Piercy, Brandt Snedeker, Tim Clark, Jason Day, Jhonattan Vegas, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Nick Taylor, just to name a few.

Leo Diegel has won the Canadian Open the most times, finding victory north of the border on 4 separate occasions. Tommy Armour, Sam Snead and Lee Trevino have each won this event three times, while Charles Murray, Albert Murray, Karl Keffer, James Douglas Edgar, Harry Cooper, Jim Ferrier, Doug Ford, Tom Weiskopf, Bruce Lietzke, Curtis Strange, Greg Norman, Nick Price, Steve Jones, Jim Furyk, Jhonattan Vegas and Rory McIlroy have each taken home two victories each in this event.

The 18 hole scoring record for the RBC Canadian Open is 60, which has been shot by 2 players:

  • Carl Pettersson- Third round, 2010 at St. George’s G&CC
  • Justin Rose- Fourth round, 2022 at St. George’s G&CC

The 72 hole total scoring record is 258 (-22) which was shot by Rory McIlroy in his victory at Hamilton Golf & Country Club in 2019, while the 72 hole scoring record to par is 263 (-25), which was shot by Johnny Palmer in his victory at St. Charles Country Club in 1952.

Last year’s edition was won by Nick Taylor, who holed a 72-foot eagle putt on the fourth playoff hole to beat Tommy Fleetwood and become the first Canadian to win the Canadian Open since Pat Fletcher in 1954. Aaron Rai, Tyrrell Hatton and C. T. Pan all finished T-3, just one stroke out of the playoff.

Player to Fade:

Photo Credit: https://golf.com/news/michael-gligic-battled-decade-pga-tour/?amp=1

The 881st ranked player in the Official World Golf Ranking, Michael Gligic is only notable this week for the fact that he is Canadian and this is his “National Open.” Gligic really hasn’t had many tournament reps this season, finishing T-58 at the Puerto Rico Open, missing the cut in his only other PGA Tour start at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches and missing the cut in his lone start on the Korn Ferry Tour at The Panama Championship. Gligic has missed the cut in this event each of the last two times it has been held at Hamilton Golf & Country Club (2012 and 2019) and with his recent form, I have no doubt that the third time will not be the charm, as I predict another missed cut for Gligic in the RBC Canadian Open.

Dark Horse:

Photo Credit: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/03/sports/golf/kevin-tway-leads-tournament-of-champions-after-first-round.html

The son of 2003 RBC Canadian Open winner Bob Tway, Kevin Tway has made only 7 starts on tour this season, but has made the most of them, bringing home 2 top 10’s and 4 top 25’s, highlighted by a T-3 finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Tway has not played enough rounds yet to have any formal ranking in the Stokes Gained metrics, but based on his current results, he is projected to rank 5th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, 26th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 32nd in Greens in Regulation. Going low has been imperative to finding victory lately in the RBC Canadian Open, with each of the last 5 winners finishing at -17 or better. Tway finished a combined -37 in his 2 top 10 finishes this season, showing he can go low when it matters most. Tway finished T-44 the last time he teed it up at Hamilton Golf & Country Club in 2019 and I strongly believe that he has the ability to improve on that result. With his current form, I predict that Tway will bring home a top 25 finish this week.

Top 10:

Sahith Theegala hits his approach shot form the 18th fairway during the first round of The Sentry golf event, Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024, at Kapalua Plantation Course in Kapalua, Hawaii. (AP Photo/Matt York)

Ranked 5th in the FedEx Cup Standings, Sahith Theegala has done everything but win this year, with 5 top 10’s, 7 top 25’s and just 2 missed cuts in 14 starts, highlighted by runner-up finishes at both The Sentry and the RBC Heritage. Theegala is another player who is not only an excellent ball striker, but knows how to score as well, ranking  32nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 23rd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 24th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 22nd in Greens in Regulation Percentage, 15th in Total Birdies and 29th in Bogey Avoidance. Theegala has not played at Hamilton Golf & Country Club before, but his game seems like it should suit this course well. After a close call at the PGA Championship just two weeks ago, Theegala is chomping at the bit to try and pick up PGA Tour victory #2. It may not come this week, but another top 10 finish is a step in the right direction for Theegala.

Winner:

Photo Credit: https://www.sbnation.com/golf/2024/4/11/24127414/masters-2024-shane-lowry-ready-augusta-national-weather

The winner of this season’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans alongside Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry has put together an excellent campaign in 2024, with 1 win, 4 top 10’s, 6 top 25’s and just 1 missed cut in 11 starts. Lowry may not go out there and light up the leaderboard every single week, but he is one of the better ball strikers in the game, ranking 16th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 37th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, 1st in Driving Accuracy Percentage and 31st in Greens in Regulation Percentage. The biggest flaw in Lowry’s game is his short game, ranking 87th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and 124th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Lowry also has past success at Hamilton Golf & Country Club, finishing T-2 here the last time the PGA Tour played here, 7 strokes behind the winner, Rory McIlroy. Lowry has proven before he has a game suited for this course. If he can put together a half decent putting week, I predict that Shane Lowry will take home the victory in the RBC Canadian Open!


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