2024 Würth 400 Predictions

The Cup Series rides on today with the 2024 Würth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway. Opening in 1969, Dover has been a fixture on the NASCAR schedule each and every year since. A 1.03 mile concrete intermediate track, Dover Motor Speedway has tested many of the great drivers of the sport, daring them to see if they can rise to the occasion and tame the “Monster Mile.”

Dover is a physically demanding racetrack that will test even the most fit of drivers. With 24 degrees of banking in the corners and 9 degrees of banking on the straightaways, drivers will truly be feeling it deep in their core as they compress into their seats in the corners while timing their braking just right to get that optimal drive off speed as they exit the corner. Not only is the race physically demanding for the drivers, it is just as demanding on the cars too. Dover Motor Speedway is a concrete racetrack, which is code for bad for tires. Dover eats through the tires much faster than at paved tracks. After the tire debacle at Bristol, another concrete racetrack, drivers will likely be treading (cue the laugh track… or the tomatoes) more lightly as the day goes on. With steep banking, there is also the chance that parts on the car could fail at a more unexpected rate than at other tracks, including blown tires, loss of brakes, blown engines and loss of power steering, among a myriad of other potential issues. Ultimately, you just have to take what the track gives you. With changing temperatures and cloud coverage over the span of 400 laps, the track can flip at the drop of a hat and leave you scrambling to rebound. As one of my own mantras goes, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.

The Würth 400 was first held in 1969 and since then, has produced an incredible legacy of wins by legends of the sport, including Richard Petty, Bobby Allison, David Pearson, Cale Yarborough, Benny Parsons, Neil Bonnett, Bill Elliott, Geoffrey Bodine, Davey Allison, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Derrike Cope, Ken Schrader, Harry Gant, Rusty Wallace, Kyle Petty, Jeff Gordon, Ricky Rudd, Dale Jarrett, Bobby Labonte, Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott, just to name a few. Jimmie Johnson leads the way with 6 victories in this race, with Bobby Allison close behind with 5 wins. David Pearson, Richard Petty, Matt Kenseth and Martin Truex Jr. have each won this race 3 times, while Cale Yarborough, Bill Elliott, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart each have a pair of wins in the Würth 400.

Last year’s edition was won by Martin Truex Jr., who steadily worked his way forward all race long to lead 68 laps and hold on for the win after a late race caution. Ross Chastain finished second after leading 98 laps in the race, while Ryan Blaney finished in third place. William Byron finished in fourth place after leading 193 laps, while Truex’s teammate Denny Hamlin rounded out the top five.

Coverage of the Würth 400 can be seen on Fox Sports 1, with NASCAR RaceDay beginning at 1 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 2 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

Corey Heim was thrust into the limelight of the Cup Series this past week, as he will make his highly anticipated debut today while filling in as a relief driver for the iconic #43 car driven by Erik Jones, who injured his back in a hard wreck last Sunday at Talladega. Heim has been lights out in his Truck Series career, with 6 wins, 23 top 5’s, 36 top 10’s and 731 laps led in just 48 starts, an absolute model of consistency and a logical choice to fill in for his Toyota counterpart at Legacy Motor Club. That being said, Dover has yet to suit Heim’s eye in his young career. Heim has never raced at Dover in the Truck Series, but has made 2 starts in the Xfinity Series at the Monster Mile, finishing 35th in both races thanks to engine issues while driving for Sam Hunt Racing. Heim faces a bit of a learning curve, being that this is his first Cup Series start and since the Gen 7 car does not race like any other vehicle he has driven in his career. Heim has shown little pace so far this weekend, ranking 31st in Practice and qualifying in 32nd for today’s race. An admirable goal would be to complete all of the laps, but Heim will not be a threat this afternoon, despite his immense talent. You’re only as good as your equipment at the end of the day, which is why I predict a finish outside the top 20 for Corey Heim in his Cup Series debut.

Dark Horse:

Josh Berry’s 2024 rookie campaign has gotten off to a much slower start than many, Berry included, have anticipated, earning just 4 top 20 finishes in the first 10 races. Despite his struggles, there is reason for great optimism, as you can make a case for Dover being Josh Berry’s best track. Berry made 3 starts at Dover in his Xfinity Series career, finishing 2-1-2 and leading 103 laps during that stretch. Berry has also made two starts at Dover in the Cup Series, filling in for Justin Haley, who had COVId-19, in 2021, and filling in for Alex Bowman, who was out with a back injury, in 2023. Berry finished 30th while filling in for Haley in the #77 for Spire Motorsports, but he finished in 10th and led 3 laps on the day while driving the #48 for Hendrick Motorsports in place of Bowman. Berry has an incredible short track pedigree from his days of racing late models, so his best tracks in the upper series have traditionally been tracks that are 1 mile in length or shorter. 2024 has played right into Berry’s hands in that regard, as he finished 11th at Richmond as well as 12th at Bristol, a concrete track. Dover is another concrete track that will require great tire management and it appears that Berry is certainly up for the task. Berry clicked off the 14th fastest lap in Practice and will roll off from the 12th position. He may not go out and run up front at every track, but it’s all about maximizing your opportunities and playing to your strengths if you’re Josh Berry in a rookie campaign on a team that has struggled greatly in recent years. With that being said, there’s no reason why Berry can’t bring home another top 12 finish this afternoon.

Top 10:

I know that most weeks, Alex Bowman is not the sexiest pick on the board. But this week is not your average week. Like Berry above, this is arguably Alex Bowman’s best track on the schedule. In his last 6 starts at Dover, Bowman has 1 win and 5 top 5 finishes, which is pretty damn good for “the fourth best driver at Hendrick Motorsports.” Bowman may not always be the dominant car on the track like some of his teammates, but he has quietly put together a solid campaign in 2024, with 4 top 5’s and 5 top 10’s in 10 starts, including a runner-up performance behind teammate William Byron in the season-opening DAYTONA 500 and a 4th place finish at Bristol Motor Speedway, which, like Dover, is a concrete track, and which proved itself to be “the ultimate driver’s track” earlier this season as it humiliated the Goodyear tires that NASCAR brought to the racetrack and forced drivers to truly manage their equipment in order to get their car to make it to the end of the race. Not too bad for a hack, am I right? Bowman didn’t have the greatest Practice, logging only the 22nd fastest lap, but he did qualify 9th for today’s race, his 3rd best qualifying performance of the season. Some drivers just seem to consistently find their way to the front at certain tracks and that is the case with Bowman at Dover. He may not have race winning pace at the moment, but expect him to be in the hunt today and bring home his 6th top 10 finish of the season.

Winner:

There have been many drivers to dominate at Dover Motor Speedway over the years, but lately, one driver has been miles (what can I say, I got jokes for days) ahead of the others. Martin Truex Jr. The stats speak for themselves at this point. Truex has done very well at Dover in his career, with 4 wins, 10 top 5’s, 19 top 10’s, 27 top 20’s and 1,069 laps led in 33 career starts. But like a fine wine, Truex has seemingly gotten better with age at Dover, with 3 of the wins and 9 of the top 5’s coming in his last 12 starts at the track. Truex has been a big of an enigma so far this weekend, laying down just the 25th fastest lap of Practice and qualifying in 15th place for today’s race, but he ranked 4th in 10 lap averages, which leads me to believe that he may have a good long run car, which he can certainly cash in on if there are several long green flag runs. 2024 has been an interesting season for Truex, who has been not only consistent, but oh so agonizingly close to victory as well, with 2 top 5’s, 5 top 10’s and 9 top 15’s in 10 starts. Truex finished 2nd at Bristol, running inside the top 10 for the majority of the race, before ultimately finishing runner-up behind his teammate Denny Hamlin. Richmond was a rough one and is likely still a sore spot for Truex, who led 228 laps on the day and was just two laps from a victory before an untimely caution caused by Kyle Larson spinning in front of Bubba Wallace. Things fell apart for Truex from there, losing the lead on pit road to his teammate, Denny Hamlin, watching Denny Hamlin jump the restart and not be penalized for it and ultimately finishing in fourth place after a poor showing in the two-lap overtime finish. Ultimately though, Truex is destined for the victory today. Last year, Martin’s brother, Ryan, started in 12th place in the Xfinity Series race, worked his way forward and ultimately won his first career Xfinity Series race. How did Martin respond? Well, he worked his way forward from a 17th place starting spot, led 68 laps and made it a weekend sweep for the Truex brothers with a victory. What happened in the Xfinity Series yesterday? Ryan Truex started 12th, steadily worked his way forward all race long and led only the final two laps to win at Dover for the second straight season. Starting to sound familiar? Where is Martin starting day? 15th position. Not an exact duplicate of last year, but you see where I’m going, right? I predict that history will repeat itself, with Martin Truex Jr. working his way forward as the day progresses to pick up his first win of 2024, his second straight win at Dover and another weekend sweep for the Truex brothers by winning the Würth 400!