Ushering in the third of six superspeedway races this season, we welcome you to the GEICO 500. Looking as though we’ll be dodging rain drops throughout the afternoon, but with enough openings to see some green-flag action, today’s race promises to deliver in routine superspeedway action. Consider this a “wild card weekend,” where 31 drivers have a shot at punching their ticket to the post season. Friends will be necessary. Focus will be key in the pits and on the track. 188 laps. Home of “The Big One” since 1969. Now’s not the time to settle old (and new) scores. Let’s get to it.
Driver to Fade:
“Fading” drivers at superspeedways is bold. Especially when last place can catapult to the top 10 in a matter of two laps. But don’t look for the #15 to make too much noise today. Cody Ware is looking not only for a career rebound, but a personal rebound after a scandalous 2023 found the driver embroiled in domestic assault charges and indefinitely suspended by the league. This, topped with the fact that his teammate is a notable superspeedway ace (thus, this is where the attention will lie with this race team this weekend) doesn’t paint the prettiest picture for a return. But still, good to see Ware back in a race car. He starts 34th.
Dark Horse:
Which brings me to my next point. Why do we love superspeedway racing so much? Because the underdog has just as much a chance to get to victory lane as the points leader does. But Justin Haley is hardly an underdog on superspeedways. Talladega is among Haley’s best tracks, with an average finish of P18. (rivaling his finishes at Daytona, Atlanta, and Dover). His lone Cup win is a superspeedway gem at Daytona in the summer of 2019. He starts 27th today at the tail end of a field loaded with talent. Look for the #51 to remain relevant today.
Top 10:
Last week’s winner is poised for a big follow-up if his superspeedway stats as of late prove anything. Chase Elliott logged a P7 finish here last Fall and a P12 here just a year ago. Go back two Fall races ago, and you’ll find that he took home the checkered flag. Frankly, there isn’t a weak spot anywhere in Team Hendrick’s armor at this point, and any of the four Hendrick bowties could find themselves in victory lane today. But, Elliott’s climb has been consistent, and he’s catching fire at the right time. Look out for the #9 Napa Auto Parts team today.
Winner:
We predict that we will see our eighth winner of the season today at the GEICO 500. The Melon Man is on a mission, a call he nearly answered a week ago in OT that saw Ross Chastain come up just a couple turns short of a top 3 finish… until he instead found the wall off the nose of William Byron. Chastain appears cool, calm and collected after last week’s incident, something Chastain has been learning to grapple with as his career has progressed. But, if we know anything, it’s that Chastain performs exceedingly well when he’s pissed off. He won here almost two years ago to the day. No, his finishes don’t point to abundant consistency here, but we know he’s capable. No doubt, he’ll be facing pressure from our series’ defending champ today in the form of a consistent Ryan Blaney, but we’re taking the #1 to bring it home today at 3 PM on FOX.
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