2024 Cook Out 400 Predictions

The Cup Series continues on this afternoon with the 2024 Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway. First opened in 1947, Martinsville Speedway is a 0.526 mile asphalt and concrete hybrid short track that has hosted at least one NASCAR race in every season of NASCAR’s existence. An unofficial Crown Jewel of the sport, Martinsville is the shortest track on the schedule, but produces some of the biggest racing of the season each time it is visited.

Short track racing is the bread and butter of the sport, the foundation upon which all other forms of racing are built on. Close, side-by-side action, beating and banging in each and every turn and using the ol’ chrome horn as necessary. Managing your equipment is key to success this afternoon because if you rough up your car too early and ruin some of the aero and handling, you won’t be able to drive worth a damn by the end of 400 laps. Martinsville often produces some long runs over the course of the afternoon, so managing your tires is going to be important as well. Using them all up during the first 40 laps of a run won’t do you much good if the run goes on for another 60 laps. There also comes a point towards the end where once you get a caution, the cautions will breed more cautions. At that point, your long run speed won’t matter when there is a caution every 10 laps. So you must set your car up acçoidwgly to run well on both short runs and long runs, which is no easy feat. Finally, patience is a virtue. Martinsville is a tough track to pass on, so getting track position early on is key. But if you don’t have track position, you have to remain patient as the race wears on and you work your way through the field, especially if you have a fast car and are mired in traffic. Remember, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.

The Cook Out 400 has long been a staple on the NASCAR schedule, with the first edition taking place in 1950. The winners list is a Who’s Who of NASCAR legend and lore, including Curtis Turner, Lee Petty, Jim Paschal, Tim Flock, Buck Baker, Richard Petty, Fred Lorenzen, Junior Johnson, Cale Yarborough, Bobby Isaac, David Pearson, Darrell Waltrip, Morgan Shepherd, Harry Gant, Geoff Bodine, Ricky Rudd, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Mark Martin, Rusty Wallace, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Hamilton, John Andretti, Dale Jarrett, Bobby Labonte, Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Clint Bowyer, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron and Kyle Larson, just to name a few..

Richard Petty has the record for most wins in this race, finding victory 9 times over a 20 year stretch. Darrell Waltrip and Rusty Wallace each have 5 wins here, with 4 of Rusty’s wins coming in 4 consecutive years. Cale Yarborough, Dale Earnhardt Sr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin also have a 3 wins a piece in this race.

Last year’s race was won by Kyle Larson, who took the lead late in the going and led the final 30 laps on his way to the victory. Joey Logano finished 2nd, while teammates Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin finished 3rd and 4th, respectively. Chase Briscoe finished 5th after leading 109 laps on the day, while his teammate Ryan Preece finished 15th after starting the race from the pole and leading the first 135 laps before a pit road penalty sent him to the rear and ultimately proved to be to much to recover from.

Coverage of the Cook Out 400 can be seen on Fox Sports 1, with NASCAR RaceDay beginning at 2 PM EST and green flag coverage beginning at 3 PM EST.

Driver to Fade:

I know what you’re thinking. He’s fading a Rick Ware Racing car? That’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off. Hear me out though. Justin Haley has had a pair of top 20’s this season, including a 17th place finish at Bristol where he ran inside the top 15 for most of the day. RWR has improved speed this year thanks to a new alliance with RFK Racing, but that doesn’t do much to help Haley today, who absolutely sucks at Martinsville. 6 career starts with a best finish of 27th, including 4 finishes of 30th or worse. This weekend looks to be much of the same, as Haley’s car is riding around out on the track like a boulder, placing 33rd in Practice and qualifying in 27th for the race. Haley’s prowess is more likely to come on a superspeedway or a road course, not a short track, and is an easy fade, as he will once again finish outside the top 25 at Martinsville.

Dark Horse:

Some drivers just do really well at certain tracks and that’s the case for Chase Briscoe at Martinsville. Briscoe finished in the top 5 in both races here last year and he has finished inside the top 10 in each of the last 4 Martinsville races, leading 134 laps during that stretch. Briscoe has shown flashes of speed at times this season, but doesn’t necessarily have the results to correlate with them. 4 starts inside the top 10 in 2024, but just 2 top 10’s and 4 top 15’s to show for it. Briscoe is seemingly picking right back up where he left off at in Martinsville, laying down the 12th fastest lap of Practice and qualifying in a season best 5th position for the race this afternoon. Briscoe had great pace on both short runs and long runs in Practice yesterday and he will most certainly be in the mix late to try and pull off an upset victory. Briscoe is an absolute lock for another top 10 finish this afternoon at Martinsville

Top 10:

Love him or hate him, Denny Hamlin is the type of driver we need in the sport: one who isn’t afraid to share his opinion and one who isn’t afraid of alienating fans and drivers while on the track. Coming off a controversial win at Richmond last week, the Virginia native comes to another Virginia track where he has had just a little bit of success in his career: 5 wins, 19 top 5’s, 25 top 10’s, 29 top 20’s and 2,382 laps led in 36 Martinsville starts. Despite his dominance here, Hamlin has not won at Martinsville since 2015, but has had 9 top 5’s and 10 top 10’s in the 17 starts since then. Hamlin has quietly set himself up for success again this weekend, showing solid speed on both short runs and long runs in Practice and will roll off from 8th place this afternoon after a slight hiccup in qualifying yesterday. Hamlin has finished inside the top 5 in each of the last 3 Martinsville races, has won 3 of the last 4 short track races dating back to last season and has 6 consecutive top 5 finishes on short tracks. Hamlin will 100% be a threat to win this afternoon, but a top 10 finish is pretty much a guarantee at this point.

Winner:

2024 has been a mixed bag for Kyle Larson, with 1 win and 3 top 5’s to go along with 4 finishes outside of the top 10. He may not have the short track dominance that Denny Hamlin has had at Martinsville, but Larson has turned up the heat lately when coming to Martinsville, with 1 win and 4 top 6 finishes in his last 6 starts, including the race win here last spring. In his last 9 short track starts, Larson has a pair of wins, 7 top 5’s, 8 top 10’s and 408 laps led during that stretch. Larson’s car was okay on the short runs during Practice yesterday, but it came alive during the long runs, pacing the field on 25 and 30 lap averages. Larson laid down the gauntlet in qualifying though, as he put his #5 car on the pole for the race. Lastly, don’t bet against history. This year is the 40th anniversary of Hendrick Motorsports. Their first win came at Martinsville courtesy of Geoff Bodine, who was driving, you guessed it, the #5. Finally, Rick Hendrick’s wife, Linda, will have her name on the passenger side of Larson’s #5 car today, so all of this leads to more incentive to put the #5 car in Victory Lane today. Plus, look at that paint scheme too, am I right? In a race that is all about getting and maintaining track position, I predict that Kyle Larson will put on an absolute clinic from the pole this afternoon and will once again put Hendrick Motorsports back in Victory Lane during their 40th anniversary season!