The PGA Tour continues on this week as it visits Torrey Pines Golf Course for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open. Two courses annually make up this flagship stop on the PGA Tour schedule, Torrey Pines Golf Course North, which will play as a Par 72, 7,258 yard layout this week, and Torrey Pines Golf Course South, which will play as a Par 72, 7,765 yard layout this week. Both courses were designed in 1957 by William P. Bell and William F. Bell, with the South Course playing as one of the longest, if not the longest, course on the PGA Tour schedule each year.
Being one of the longest courses on tour, success this week is hitting the ball far. Granted, that’s key for success most weeks on tour, but hitting it a long way will really pay off this week, provided you can hit the fairway, as thick, gnarly kikuyu rough will be awaiting those who are errant off the tee. Ball striking is always king, especially with the long irons, and having a deft touch around the greens will also come in handy this week.
A fixture on the PGA Tour since 1952, this event has produced many great winners over the years, including Gene Littler, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player, Tom Watson, Johnny Miller, Peter Jacobsen, Davis Love III, John Daly, Jon Rahm, Jason Day and Justin Rose. The kings of this event have been Phil Mickelson, who won here 3 times in his career, and Tiger Woods, who has won this event 7 times. The scoring record is 266 (-22), a record that will likely never be touched, and was initially acheived by George Burns (not that George Burns) in 1987 and by Tiger Woods in 1999.
This year’s edition is paced by 8 of the top 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking and 7 of the top 15 in the FedEx Cup Standings, including Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Keegan Bradley, Jason Day and the defending champion, Max Homa, who shot a final round 66 to come from 5 strokes back on the final day and beat Keegan Bradley by two strokes. Collin Morikawa finished in third place, three strokes back, while Sam Ryder, Sahith Theegala and Sungjae Im finished T-4, four strokes back.
Once upon a time, Michael Block was a Cinderella Story. He took the world by storm last spring with his T-15 at the PGA Championship, which culminated in a final round hole in one while paired alongside Rory McIlroy. Block quickly became the People’s Champion and with it came a few more sponsor exemptions into additional tournaments. Block has been unable to recapture the lightning in a bottle game play he had that week, missing the cut in each of his other four starts since then. Block has played this event 6 previous times, with an 82nd place finish the only time he made the cut in 2014. 10 years further along now, Block is still a fan favorite, but will merely be a footnote with a missed cut this week.
With Jon Rahm leaving for LIV, there is only one true winner in all of this: Carl Yuan. With Rahm’s departure, he is no longer a member of the PGA Tour and was removed from the FedEx Cup standings. Everyone moved up one spot that was behind him and because of that, Yuan moved from #126 to #125 in the FedEx Cup Fall standings, which gave him full playing rights this season on the PGA Tour. Yuan started his season with a bang, finishing T-4 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Yuan’s coming in off of a missed cut at The American Express, but he has the necessary stats for success at Torrey Pines. Yuan ranks 1st in Driving Distance, averaging 324.1 yards off the tee, and he will need every inch of that as he battles around a course that will play over 7,700 yards this week. He’s accurate from the tee as well, hitting 67.86% of his fairways this season, good enough to rank 18th on tour. He ranks inside the top 40 in all 6 of the major Strokes Gained categories, which tells me his game is firing on all cylinders right now. Yuan also ranks 21st in Scrambling, which will be important if he gets a little wild with his iron play. Yuan missed the cut here last year, but we predict he will right the ship on his way to a top 20 finish this week.
As talented as Collin Morikawa is, you can’t help but wonder, why doesn’t he win more often? Because he can’t putt worth a damn, that’s why. Right now, Morikawa ranks 108th in Strokes Gained: Putting, losing -0.510 strokes per round on average on the greens. Incredibly, if Morikawa maintains this spot the rest of the season, this would be the best he’s ever finished in this stat since joining the PGA Tour. Nevertheless, Morikawa’s game is strong in other areas, ranking 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, 7th in Greens in Regulation Percentage and 2nd in Scrambling, all areas which will be keep to finding success this week. Morikawa has good mojo in this event, finishing T-21 here in 2020 and 3rd last season, not too mention a T-5 finish just a few weeks ago at The Sentry to kick off the 2024 season. Morikawa is playing spectacularly in spite of a poor putter and we predict he will keep things rolling this week with another top 10 finish.
Jason Day has been quiet, but consistent, so far in 2024, finishing T-10 at The Sentry and T-34 at The American Express. Day’s game is solid through the bag currently, as he is gaining strokes in each of the 6 major Strokes Gained categories. Much like Morikawa, Day checks many of the boxes for success entering this week, ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, 12th in Greens in Regulation Percentage, 13th in Scrambling and 6th in Bogey Avoidance. Day’s record in this event is pretty impressive, with 2 wins, 7 top 10’s and 8 top 25’s in 14 starts, including top 10’s each of the last 2 years. This event has produced many big name winners throughout the years and the veterans of the game often find themselves towards the top of the leaderboard due to what is usually a challenging setup each year. We predict that this year will be no different and that Jason Day will find victory here for the third time in his career and for the first time in 2024!
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