2024 The American Express Predictions

The PGA Tour continues on this week as it returns to Southern California for the 2024 The American Express. As always, the event will be contested over three different host courses: La Quinta Country Club, playing as a Par 72, 7,060 yard layout; the Nicklaus Tournament Course, playing as a Par 72, 7,147 yard layout; and the Pete Dye Stadium Course, playing as a Par 72, 7,187 yard layout. The event, which has been held annually since 1960, was once an anomaly on tour, as this event was originally contested over five rounds through 2011. The event has been played as a standard, four round event, but with a cut after 54 holes instead of 36 holes, since 2012.

With three courses on the rota this week, there are so many different stats you could point to for finding success. But at the end of the day, success can be found by going low, with winners finishing at -20 or better every single year since the event switch to a 72 hole format in 2012. The field is stout this year, with 10 of the top 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking teeing it up, highlighted by perennial PGA Tour winners Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele, just to name a few.

Last year’s edition was won by Jon Rahm, who won for the fourth time in a five event stretch, by firing a -27 for a score of 261 to win by one stroke over Davis Thompson. Xander Schauffele and Chris Kirk finished T-3, two strokes back, and Taylor Montgomery rounded out the top 5, finishing three strokes back.

Player to Fade:

Tom Hoge had a rough season last year and I don’t see him making moves in 2024. His short game struggled and that is everything you need in the desert. I know his iron play is his strong suit, but I don’t see it being enough for this event.

Dark Horse:

Chris Kirk might not typically fall in this category due to his recent win at The Sentry, but this realm is newer to him. I see him really blossoming this season. 4 of his 6 tour wins happened more than 5 years ago. His game is solid, but distance tends to be a bit of a setback. I consider him a dark horse because I don’t think many consider him to be in contention. His game has radically improved and I would love to see another week up on the leaderboard for him.

Top 10:

Xander Schauffele shouldn’t have any troubles making the top 10  at this event. Last year, he finished T-3, so he is more than comfortable with the course. The odds are high in the betting world because of last week, but we all know what Xander is capable and he always bounces back. I never rule him out.

Winner:

Sungjae Im has been nothing short of consistent when it comes to this event. He might need a little push to get to the top, but he has it in him. He likes the set up and just finished T-5 at The Sentry. I am feeling strong with this pick. His short game and putting are solid and that is exactly what he needs this week to seal the deal.