The penultimate event of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season gets under way this week as it visits the North Course at Olympia Fields Country Club for the 2023 BMW Championship. The top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings after this week will move on to the Tour Championship, where a victory will give them the title of FedEx Cup Champion and an $18 million paycheck. Former Open Championship winner Willie Park Jr. designed the North Course at Olympia Fields, which will play as a Par 70, 7,366 yard layout for this year’s edition. The last time Olympia Fields hosted the BMW Championship was in 2020, where Jon Rahm shot a final round 64 and holed a 66 foot putt on the first playoff hole to beat Dustin Johnson to take home the title. The last two editions of the BMW Championship were won by Patrick Cantlay, who beat Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff in 2021 and held off Scott Stallings to win by a stroke in 2022.
Player to Fade:
After four straight top 15 finishes to start the season, Tom Hoge has limped into the playoffs, with just 2 top 20 finishes in his last 11 starts. Hoge finished T-65 at Olympia Fields the last time they hosted the BMW Championship and his recent form doesn’t indicate that a change will soon be imminent. In this no cut, limited field event, we predict that Hoge will be a non-factor and finish outside the top 25 this week.
Dark Horse:
Byeong Hun “Ben” An has had a quietly successful season on tour, with 4 top 10’s, 12 top 25’s, and just 6 missed cuts in 30 starts to sit in 38th place in the FedEx Cup standings entering this week. With a pair of top 3 finishes in his last four starts, An is heating up at just the right time. An finished T-12 at Olympia Fields in 2020 and with his play of late, there’s no reason why An can’t bring home a top 20 finish this week in his push to make the Tour Championship for the first time in his career.
Top 10:
Tommy Fleetwood has been on an absolute heater on the PGA Tour, with 7 top 15 finishes in his last 10 starts. Fleetwood’s game has been solid all through the bag, as he is ranked 7th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 13th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Fleetwood’s T-3 finish last week bumped his career earnings to over $20 million, the first player to ever hit that mark without winning on the PGA Tour. Fleetwood is bound to win eventually, but until that time comes, it’s best to ride with his recent success as he brings home another top 10 finish this week.
Winner:
The two-time defending champion of the BMW Championship, Patrick Cantlay comes into this week fresh off of a runner-up finish to Lucas Glover last week. Currently ranked fifth in the FedEx Cup standings, Cantlay has 9 top 10’s and 14 top 25’s on tour this season, but is still looking for his first victory of the campaign. Ranking inside the top 5 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee, and Total, Cantlay is one of the elite ball strikers on tour and looks to put those skills to the test this week at a challenging Olympia Fields. With a field as strong as this week’s is, it’s anybody’s game to win, but we predict that Patrick Cantlay will get the job done for the third straight year at a third different golf course and successfully defend his title at the BMW Championship!