The 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season kicks off on Sunday, February 20, with the 64th running of the Daytona 500. Before the season officially gets underway, I’d like to make some predictions about the upcoming season, including which drivers will earn their first career wins, which drivers will make and miss the playoffs, which driver will be the Rookie of the Year, how Kaulig Racing will fare in its first full-time season, who will make the Championship 4, and who will win the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.
Which Drivers Will Earn Their First Career Wins:
Tyler Reddick- Reddick had a solid campaign in 2021 for Richard Childress Racing, with 3 top 5’s and 16 top 10’s on the way to his first playoff appearance and a 13th place finish in the points standings. Reddick’s top 5 finishes came on 3 different style tracks: Homestead-Miami Speedway (mile and a half oval), Daytona International Speedway (superspeedway), and the Charlotte Roval (road course). Reddick improved across the board from his rookie campaign in 2020, earning 7 more top 10 finishes, improving his average starting position by over 3 spots (18.58 to 15.39) and improving his average finishing position by 2.5 spots (17.5 to 15). Reddick is primed for a banner year in 2022 and will do so by picking up his first career win.
Austin Cindric- Cindric will make his long-awaited, full-time debut driving the 2 for Team Penske this season and will make his presence known immediately. Cindric had a superior Xfinity Series career, with 13 wins, 62 top 5’s, and 89 top 10’s in 133 starts, as well as winning the Xfinity Series Championship in 2020 and finishing 2nd in the 2021 Xfinity Series Championship. Cindric has the skills to win on any style track on any given day and is especially strong on road courses and mile and a half tracks. I predict that Cindric will have a multi-win campaign on the way to a playoff appearance in his rookie season.
Harrison Burton- Burton may not have been the flashiest driver in the Xfinity Series, but he was able to bring in the results when they mattered, earning 4 wins, 26 top 5’s, and 49 top 10’s in 75 career starts. Winless in 2021, Burton still had 10 top 5’s and 22 top 10’s on his way to a second consecutive 8th place finish in the championship standings. Burton makes the leap to the Cup Series in 2022 and will be driving the iconic 21 car for the illustrious Wood Brothers Racing, the oldest active team in the sport. Burton has added incentive to do well, as Wood Brothers Racing has been sitting at 99 career wins since 2017. Looking to join the likes of David Pearson, A.J. Foyt, and Neil Bonnett, Burton is going to put it together this season and bring home his first career Cup Series win and the 100th career win for the Wood Brothers.
Surprise Picks To Make The Playoffs:
Tyler Reddick, Austin Cindric, and Harrison Burton- See Drivers Who Will Earn Their First Career Wins:
Austin Dillon- Even though Dillon has long been considered “The Silver Spoon Driver”, Dillon had one of his most consistent seasons to date in 2021, despite what the stats may show. Dillon had 1 top 5 and 8 top 10’s in 2021, compared to 1 win, 4 top 5’s, and 9 top 10’s in 2020. Nevertheless, his average finishing position improved nearly 2 spots, from 16.17 to 14.44. With 28 top 16 finishes to go along with just 3 DNFs, Dillon would have made the playoffs on points had either Michael McDowell or Aric Almirola not went to victory lane. Dillon would for sure make the playoffs with a win this year, but he very well has the ability to point his way too, which I predict he will do, joining fellow RCR teammate Tyler Reddick by doing so.
Brad Keselowski- Keselowski had a unique 2021 season, regressing across the board in all of the major stats, but pulling off a 6th place finish in the points standings in the process. With 1 win, 10 top 5’s, 17 top 10’s, and an average finish of 12.97. Keselowski’s stats would be the envy of many Cup Series drivers. However, it is a regression from 2020, where he had 4 wins, 13 top 5’s, 24 top 10’s, and an average finish of 10.08. Keselowski made news by announcing he would become a driver, as well as part-owner for Roush Fenway Racing, now known as Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing. It’s no secret that Roush has struggled in recent years, with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. being the last driver to win a race for the team in 2017. With Chris Buescher finishing 19th in the points standings last year, the team is right on the edge of making the playoffs again. I predict that Brad will be the additional catalyst needed and propel RFK Racing to a playoff appearance in 2022.
Surprise Picks To Miss The Playoffs:
Kurt Busch- Busch put together a solid campaign in the final year of Chip Ganassi Racing, with 1 win, 6 top 5’s, and 14 top 10’s on his way to an 11th place finish in the points standings. Busch will be commanding the 45 car alongside Bubba Wallace in the 23 car at 23XI Racing this season. Busch brings a wealth of knowledge to a team that is in its second year, having raced full-time in the Cup Series since 2001 and having driven a car from each manufacturer (Chevy, Ford, and Dodge. Will drive Toyota for 23XI.). Wallace drove the 23 in the team’s inaugural season and averaged a 19.67 finish. Busch has always been able to get the most out of his equipment, so adding him to the team will give 23XI Racing a solid baseline of whether the team’s equipment is only good enough for 20th place or if the team has even more untapped potential. Busch is a great driver, but I believe the learning curve will be too much for him to overcome in his first year with a new team and he will miss the playoffs.
Aric Almirola- Almirola was one of several Cinderella Stories last season, winning at New Hampshire to punch his ticket into the playoffs. Without the win, Almirola had a season to forget, with just 1 other top 5, 4 other top 10’s, and an average finishing position of 19.94. Even though Almirola has made the playoffs each of the last 4 years, he has finished 14th or worse each of the last 3 years. Almirola has never really had consistent speed in his career and has almost always been a win to make the playoffs type driver. In his final season of driving in 2022, I predict that Almirola will go out quietly and miss the playoffs.
Bubba Wallace- Wallace’s 2021 campaign was mostly one to forget. Capped by a win at the rain shortened fall Talladega race, Wallace had 2 other top 5 finishes on his way to a 21st place finish in the standings. 2021 did some some signs of improvement for Wallace. He had 3 top 20’s on road courses, which are statistically his worst style track, having never had a top 20 on any road course in the Cup Series previously; He improved his average running position by nearly 2 spots, going from 21.08 to 19.67; and Wallace also had 4 more top 16 finishes, earning 16 last season compared to 12 in 2020. Having a veteran like Kurt Busch as a teammate is going to help Wallace this year. I predict that Wallace will miss the playoffs, but earn his first top 20 finish in the points standings.
Who Will Win Rookie of the Year:
Austin Cindric- I have predicted both Austin Cindric and Harrison Burton to make the playoffs this year, so Rookie of the Year honors automatically boil down between these two drivers. I expect this to be a much closer battle than most are probably expecting, but I predict that Austin Cindric will just nip Burton for the honors due to him having more wins than Burton.
How Will Kaulig Racing Fare In 2022:
Kaulig Racing shocked the world last year by winning the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard with AJ Allmendinger in just their 7th career start as an organization in the Cup Series. The team will field its first full-time entry in Justin Haley this season and field a part-time entry shared by Allmendinger, Noah Gragson, and defending Xfinity Series Champion Daniel Hemric. With Allmendinger’s road course expertise, I have no doubt that he will hold his own and bring home victory #2 for Kaulig this year at one of the road course races.
Which 16 Drivers Will Make The Playoffs:
Christopher Bell
Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman
Harrison Burton
Kyle Busch
William Byron
Austin Cindric
Austin Dillon
Chase Elliott
Denny Hamlin
Kevin Harvick
Brad Keselowski
Kyle Larson
Joey Logano
Tyler Reddick
Martin Truex Jr.
Which Drivers Will Advance To The Round Of 12:
Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman
Kyle Busch
William Byron
Austin Dillon
Chase Elliott
Denny Hamlin
Kevin Harvick
Kyle Larson
Joey Logano
Tyler Reddick
Martin Truex Jr.
Which Drivers Will Advance To The Round Of 8:
Ryan Blaney
Chase Elliott
Denny Hamlin
Kevin Harvick
Kyle Larson
Joey Logano
Tyler Reddick
Martin Truex Jr.
Which Drivers Will Advance To The Championship 4:
Ryan Blaney
Denny Hamlin
Kyle Larson
Martin Truex Jr.
Your 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Champion Is:
Why Kyle Larson Will Win- Winner of the 2021 Cup Series Championship, Larson had a season to remember last year, winning 10 races and earning 20 top 5 and 26 top 10 finishes enroute to his first Cup Series Championship. Winning races on mile and a half tracks, road courses, and short tracks, Larson is the complete package in terms of versatility. With a new generation vehicle upon us in 2022, there will be a learning curve for sure, but I expect Larson to adapt quickly and continue his winning ways. Will Larson win 10 races again this year? That’s tough to say. I expect him to grab at least another half a dozen wins though and become the first repeat Cup Series Champion since Jimmie Johnson won 5 consecutive titles from 2006-2010.