The 2021 NASCAR season begins this Sunday with the 63rd running of the Daytona 500. Before the season officially gets underway, I’d like to make some predictions about the upcoming season, including which drivers will earn their first career wins, which drivers will make and miss the playoffs, who will make the Championship 4, and who will win the 2021 Cup Series Championship.
Who will earn their first career wins:
Ross Chastain- Chastain is one of the most talented drivers in NASCAR today. Chastain has shown he can consistently contend, finishing in the top 10 in 27 of 33 races in the Xfinity Series last season with an average finish of 8.2. Now that he will be racing in quality equipment full time, I believe he will be able to put together a great debut season. Driving the 42 for Chip Ganassi Racing, Chastain will receive great help from having a veteran teammate in Kurt Busch. I believe Chastain will win at some point this season and make his way into the playoffs. His best chance will be at any of the superspeedway tracks, which were his bread and butter when racing in the Xfinity Series for Kaulig Racing.
Chase Briscoe- Briscoe will be making his much anticipated debut driving the 14 for Stewart Haas Racing. Briscoe had a strong career in the Xfinity Series with 11 career wins and 2 top 5 finishes in the points standings. Briscoe will also have the ability to rely on veteran teammates in both Kevin Harvick and Aric Almirola. Briscoe can win on any given day, but he has shown a penchant for road course racing. He could quickly give Chase Elliott a run for his money on this style track and I believe Briscoe too will win his way into the playoffs.
Matt DiBenedetto- Matty D has been a fan favorite in NASCAR for several years now and there wouldn’t be a more popular victory than this guy finally crossing the finish line first. Returning to historic Wood Beothers Racing, DiBenedetto had 2 runner up finishes and a 3rd on his way to a career best 13th place finish in the points standings. If DiBenedetto can finish a few positions higher each week, he will easily make the playoffs again. He has shown strength on superspeedway and intermediate length tracks, so look at those tracks as his best chance to check off that first career win.
Driver who will retire at season’s end:
Kurt Busch- Busch showed that he still had some gas left in the tank late last season, with a victory in Las Vegas and a trip to the Round of 8 before ultimately finishing 10th in the points standings. However, I believe the end is quite near for Busch, as he has only finished 7th or higher in the final points standings once since his championship season in 2004. Busch has also spent a lot of time in the broadcast booth of late doing analyst work for the Gander Outdoors Truck Series. With his contract up at the end of the season, I believe Busch will bow out and transfer seamlessly to full-time broadcasting work.
Ryan Newman- Newman is fortunate to be alive after his crash on the final lap of the 2020 Daytona 500. Nonetheless, that doesn’t take away from the fact that Newman’s driving career has been on the downhill slide for quite awhile, as he has only finished inside the top 10 in points twice in the last 10 seasons, with the highlight being a runner up finish in 2014. Newman has 18 career wins, with 8 of them coming in 2003. It’s been a steady decline ever since and I believe Newman will retire when his contract with Roush Fenway Racing is up at season’s end.
Surprise picks to make the playoffs:
Ross Chastain, Chase Briscoe, and Matt DiBenedetto- See drivers to earn their first career wins.
Christopher Bell- Bell will finally get a chance to contend every week, as he moves from the now defunct Leavine Family Racing and into the 20 owned by Joe Gibbs Racing. Bell has shown he can contend, winning 16 times in the Xfinity Series and 7 times in the Gander Outdoors Truck Series. Bell even had 7 top 10 finishes last seasons while driving in sub par equipment. I still think there will be a learning curve, but I think Bell has the ability to make his way into the playoffs on points and maybe even win a race at some point too.
Kyle Larson- Even though Larson has not raced in the Cup Series since before the pandemic, he has kept his skills sharp by racing in the World of Outlaws Sprint Car Series. Larson too will face a learning curve, as he will drive the 5 for Hendrick Motorsports. Larson had previously been a consistent driver for Chip Ganassi Racing, finishing in the top 10 in the final points standings each year from 2016-2019. I expect Larson to pick back up where he left off, racing his way into the playoffs on points and regularly contending for race victories.
Surprise picks to miss the playoffs:
Austin Dillon- Dillon made the playoffs last year due to his victory at Texas Motor Speedway. He also showed off his abilities during the playoffs with 6 top 12 finishes, including a runner-up finish in the Southern 500. With 4 top 5’s and 9 top 10’s last season, Dillon has shown that he can race well and is just a few more consistent runs away from being a threat to win more often. In my eyes, Dillon just isn’t consistent enough to make the playoffs unless he wins his way in. He is a lock to finish in the top 20 in points.
Bubba Wallace- Wallace will have high expectations as he races for Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan at 23XI Racing. I expect Bubba to continue to improve in the final standings, as he finished a career best 22nd in the final standings last year. Bubba’s biggest challenge will be with the addition of road courses, which is his weakest style of track. He’s never had a top 20 in the Cup Series in a road course race and with more on the schedule this season, will need to improve in this area if he wants to contend. The team will likely have some hiccups along the way in their debut year, but I think a top 20 finish in the final standings is possible for Wallace.
Erik Jones- Jones is looking to rejuvenate his career as he leaves Joe Gibbs Racing to drive the iconic 43 for Richard Petty Motorsports. Jones has plateaued the past 3 seasons, finishing 15th, 16th, and 17th in the final points standings. Having missed the playoffs last season and signing on with a new team, Jones will have a chip on his shoulder to succeed, but will fall short of the playoffs unless he wins. Jones will try and back door his way to a top 20, but look for him to finish between 21st-25th place in the standings at season’s end.
William Byron- Byron earned his first career cup win at the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway last year enroute to a 14th place finish in the points standings. Like Austin Dillon, Byron has shown flashes of potential, but isn’t quite consistent enough to contend on a weekly basis, finishing with 4 top 5’s and 14 top 10’s last year. If he could pick up a few more top 10’s and parlay a few of his existing top 10’s into top 5’s, Byron could easily point his way into the playoffs. But until he starts pulling in a few more top 5’s, he will struggle to make the playoffs. Byron will finish the season between 17th-20th place in points.
Which 16 drivers will make the playoffs:
Aric Almirola
Christopher Bell
Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman
Chase Briscoe
Kurt Busch
Kyle Busch
Ross Chastain
Matt DiBenedetto
Chase Elliott
Denny Hamlin
Kevin Harvick
Brad Keselowski
Kyle Larson
Joey Logano
Martin Truex Jr.
Which drivers will advance to the round of 12:
Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman
Chase Briscoe
Kyle Busch
Ross Chastain
Chase Elliott
Denny Hamlin
Kevin Harvick
Brad Keselowski
Kyle Larson
Joey Logano
Martin Truex Jr.
Which drivers will advance to the round of 8:
Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman
Kyle Busch
Chase Elliott
Denny Hamlin
Kevin Harvick
Joey Logano
Martin Truex Jr.
Which drivers will advance to the Championship 4:
Alex Bowman
Kyle Busch
Chase Elliott
Kevin Harvick
And your 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Champion is:
Kyle Busch
Why Busch will win- Busch is going to be a man on a mission this year. 2020 was a tough year where he earned his lone win at Texas Motor Speedway in the 3rd to last race of the season. The rest of the year was a battle with flashes of brilliance and a lot of bad finishes by Kyle Busch standards. Busch thrives when he has something to prove and he wants to return to his past dominance. From the round of 8 on last season, he showed his brilliance and will hope to carry that over into this season. In 31 Phoenix starts, he’s had 22 top 10’s to go along with 3 wins. He’s going to be a heavy favorite in the closing stretch this year and will go on to win his 3rd NASCAR Cup Series Championship.